Predicted Edge

Football predictions today

Predictions you can check.

A probability for every match in 38 leagues, 22 cup competitions and international football. Every pick is locked at kick-off and published afterwards with its result, losses included. Nothing is edited, nothing is deleted.

See today’s free picksGet all 30 of the day’s picks· £4.99 a month

Tomorrow’s free picks

All picks →
  1. Free pick 1La LigaEdge strength 5 of 5

    Celta VigoLevante

    Levante 0

    Levante to win; a draw returns the stake. We put the chance at 32%; the best price, 3.10, implies 32%.

    3.10Bet365 · best now · stake 1.21 of 100 unitsThe best price now is below 3.18, the lowest at which this selection cleared the bar when it was published.
    Why this price?

    Back Levante 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — Levante to win; a draw returns the stake.

    Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.08. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

    Stake 1.21 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

    Projected goals: Celta Vigo 1.48, Levante 1.10.

    The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

    Fair price 3.08; the pick qualifies at 3.18 or longer.

    Published 3.45best now 3.10 Bet365shorter by 10% 10%

    Members had it from Sat 31 Oct 18:17; free since Sat 7 Nov 00:17 (6d 6h later).

  2. Free pick 2Premier LeagueEdge strength 5 of 5

    IpswichBournemouth

    Bournemouth +0.25

    Bournemouth starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet. We put the chance at 68%; the best price, 1.62, implies 62%.

    1.62Bet365 · best now · stake 2.00 of 100 units
    Why this price?

    Back Bournemouth +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Bournemouth starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

    Our model puts the chance at 72% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.48. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

    Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

    Projected goals: Ipswich 1.26, Bournemouth 1.88.

    The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

    Fair price 1.48; the pick qualifies at 1.52 or longer.

    Published 1.65best now 1.62 Bet365shorter by 2% 2%

    Members had it from Sat 31 Oct 16:17; free since Sat 7 Nov 00:17 (6d 8h later).

  3. Free pick 3Serie AEdge strength 5 of 5

    FiorentinaJuventus

    Juventus +0.25

    Juventus starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet. We put the chance at 68%; the best price, 1.85, implies 54%.

    1.85Bet365 · best now · stake 2.00 of 100 units
    Why this price?

    Back Juventus +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.63 with BetVictor — Juventus starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

    Our model puts the chance at 72% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.46. The offered 1.63 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

    Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

    Projected goals: Fiorentina 1.09, Juventus 1.66.

    The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

    Fair price 1.46; the pick qualifies at 1.51 or longer.

    Published 1.63best now 1.85 Bet365longer by 13% 13%

    Members had it from Sun 1 Nov 18:17; free since Sat 7 Nov 00:17 (5d 6h later).

27 more member picks today, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick

Every match, one prediction

Premier League4Most likely prediction
La Liga4Most likely prediction
Serie A4Most likely prediction
Bundesliga5Most likely prediction
Ligue 12Most likely prediction
Championship11Most likely prediction

Show 130 more matches in 28 more competitions

Kick-off times are in your local time zone. The percentage is our model’s probability for its most likely outcome. A value pick is a separate call: a bet whose price is longer than our estimate says it should be, so it can back the less likely side. Tap a match for every market, the odds and the statistics.

Big matches this week

Tomorrow’s fixtures →

Previews and reviews

All articles →