FSV Mainz 05 v 
Bayern München
Match statistics
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 26 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 321 | Passes | 719 |
| 31% | Possession % | 69% |
| 0.64 | xG | 2.70 |
- Over 1.5
- 94%
- Over 2.5
- 82%
- Over 3.5
- 65%
- Both score
- 72%
- Model pick
- Bayern München 70%
- Likely score
- 1-3 8%
- Expected goals
- 1.41 – 3.03
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bayern München favoured against FSV Mainz 05
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 15% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 15% and Bayern München at 70%. The goal projection is 1.41 for FSV Mainz 05 against 3.03 for Bayern München — a commanding edge to Bayern München on expected output. A combined 4.44 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 82% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-3 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bayern München is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 30% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-3 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-4 6%
- 0-3 5%
- 2-3 5%
This season
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 3-1-5 | W-D-L | 6-3-0 |
| 1.11 | Pts / game | 2.33 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 3.22 |
| 2.11 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 78% | Over 2.5 | 89% |
| 67% | BTTS | 78% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 0-1-4 | Home record | 3-1-0 |
| 3-0-1 | Away record | 3-2-0 |
| L3 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FSV Mainz 05 · Bayern München
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.7 | Shots | 24.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 10.8 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 2.75 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 47 | Possession % | 64 |
| 1.88 | xG | 3.75 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 17.0 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 53 | Possession % | 37 |
| 1.95 | xG | 1.17 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| FSV Mainz 05 | Metric | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 4.00 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.27 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 | Shots on target | 9.40 (better) |
| 15.00 | Total shots | 20.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.25 | Corners | 8.20 (better) |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 57.6 (better) |
| 482 | Passes | 587 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.75 (better) | Fouls | 11.20 |
| 2.50 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FSV Mainz 05 wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Bayern München wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München1–22026-11-07
- FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München3–42026-04-25
- Bayern München v FSV Mainz 052–22025-12-14
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -12 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |