Draw predictions today and this week

Draws: how often, league by league

The share of this season’s finished matches in each league that ended this way; across all 38 leagues listed, 26% of 5,550 matches. A probability on this page well above its league’s rate is the model seeing something in the two sides; one close to it is close to an ordinary match there.

Leagues with at least 10 finished matches this season. Ninety minutes only. More on the statistics hub.

How these are chosen

Each fixture’s probability is the model’s chance of a draw in ninety minutes, from the scoreline distribution it fits for the match. Draws are likeliest between evenly matched sides with low expected goals, where 0–0 and 1–1 carry most of the weight; the Dixon–Coles adjustment the model uses corrects the plain Poisson model’s known tendency to under-rate those two scores.

How often do matches end in a draw?

About one in four in most leagues, so a draw probability above 30% is a strong call. No side is ever a favourite to draw: the probability is a comparison between evenly matched teams, not a prediction that the match will be dull.

Which matches are most likely to be drawn?

Evenly matched sides, both with modest attacks; cup ties with a replay or second leg to come; and matches where both sides would settle for a point. The model sees the first of these in the numbers and the others only indirectly.

League rates are on the statistics hub; the method is set out in full under how it works.