Kosovo v Israel

14:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Kosovo 43%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 0.98

Advised bets

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kosovo favoured against Israel

Our model makes Kosovo 43% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Israel at 28%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Kosovo against 0.98 for Israel — a clear edge to Kosovo on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Kosovo and Israel
Kosovo		Israel
4	Played	4
1-2-1	W-D-L	0-2-2
1.25	Pts / game	0.50
0.75	Goals for / game	0.50
1.00	Goals against / game	1.75
25%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	25%
25%	Failed to score	50%
1-1-0	Home record	0-1-1
0-1-1	Away record	0-1-1
D2	Streak	D2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kosovo · Israel

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	8.3
4.5	Shots on target	2.5
2.5	Corners	2.8
0.75	Cards	1.75
10.0	Fouls	10.8
49	Possession %	51
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.3	Shots	15.5
3.5	Shots on target	5.0
3.5	Corners	4.0
1.00	Cards	1.50
14.8	Fouls	11.8
51	Possession %	49
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kosovo	Metric	Israel
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.45 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.64
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	2.60
14.00 (better)	Total shots	8.80
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	2.60 (better)
49.0 (better)	Possession %	48.8
465	Passes	488 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	10.20
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.40
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	1.40
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kosovo wins: 0
Draws: 1
Israel wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Israel v Kosovo0–02026-10-01