Predicted Edge

By market

Under 2.5 goals predictions today and this week

Matches our model rates most likely to have two goals or fewer — typically two well-organised sides, or one strong defence against a blunt attack.

270 published matches in the next 14 days, strongest first; the 60 strongest are listed, and the rest are on their day pages. 208 more fixtures get a prediction at least 24 hours before kick-off.

Under 2.5 goals means two goals or fewer in ninety minutes, both sides combined. This season it has happened in 45% of 5,550 matches across 38 leagues, from 62% (Liga Profesional Argentina) to 26% (Swiss Super League). Of the 270 matches with a published prediction in the next 14 days, the model’s highest probability is for Hungary v Northern Ireland (Tuesday 17 November), at 75%.

Under 2.5 goals predictions today 4

UEFA Nations League4Prediction

Under 2.5 goals predictions tomorrow 10

UEFA Nations League8Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Segunda División1Prediction

Under 2.5 goals predictions later this week and next 46

UEFA Nations League21Prediction
Brasileirão Série A3Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Coupe de France2Prediction
League One3Prediction
League Two6Prediction
Segunda División2Prediction
Friendlies8Prediction

Probabilities are estimates from a Dixon–Coles model fitted on results and expected goals. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

Every market for every match: today’s predictions · tomorrow’s predictions

Under 2.5 goals: how often, league by league

The share of this season’s finished matches in each league that ended this way; across all 38 leagues listed, 45% of 5,550 matches. A probability on this page well above its league’s rate is the model seeing something in the two sides; one close to it is close to an ordinary match there.

LeaguePlayedUnder 2.5 goals
Liga Profesional Argentina49562%
Veikkausliiga17956%
K League 121053%
Romanian Liga I12053%
League Two16453%
Premier League10053%
Serie B10952%
Ligue 210852%
Segunda División14049%
Brasileirão Série A33949%
The other 28 leagues
LeaguePlayedUnder 2.5 goals
Greek Super League6948%
League One15847%
Primeira Liga9847%
Allsvenskan22447%
Liga MX14347%
La Liga11945%
Hungarian NB I7744%
Chance Liga11144%
Danish Superliga8444%
Ligue 19043%
Saudi Pro League10443%
J1 League14043%
Scottish Premiership7543%
2. Bundesliga9942%
Chinese Super League24041%
Süper Lig9940%
Serie A11040%
Ekstraklasa12439%
Croatian HNL6338%
Championship18038%
Belgian Pro League9936%
Eliteserien20836%
Major League Soccer51036%
A-League2335%
Austrian Bundesliga7235%
Bundesliga8130%
Eredivisie10828%
Swiss Super League7826%

Leagues with at least 10 finished matches this season. Ninety minutes only. More on the statistics hub.

How these are chosen

Each fixture’s probability is the model’s chance of two goals or fewer, summed from the scoreline distribution it fits for the match: expected goals for both sides, adjusted for the opponent and for home advantage. Low-scoring sides, strong defences and cagey fixtures rise to the top. The ranking is by the model’s probability, not by price, so a match can appear here while the market disagrees.

What does under 2.5 goals mean?
That the match has two goals or fewer in ninety minutes, both sides combined. 1–1, 1–0 and 0–0 win the bet; 2–1 loses it.
Which matches tend to go under 2.5?
Those between two well-organised sides with modest attacks, derbies and relegation six-pointers, and matches where one side defends deep. The league rate matters too: the statistics hub shows which leagues run lowest-scoring this season.

League rates are on the statistics hub; the method is set out in full under how it works.

Goals (over/under) picks: how the price moved

Members get each pick the moment it is published; the free picks follow later in the morning and the rest are public once the day is over. The last 10 settled goals (over/under) picks, with the price each was published at and the last price before kick-off, whichever way it moved.

A shorter closing price means the market moved towards the pick after it was published. It says nothing about whether the pick won; the day pages carry every outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month.