Czechia v Spain

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 40%

Model pick: Spain 69%
Likely score: 0-2 14%
Expected goals: 0.63 – 1.96

Advised bets

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Model pick: Total goals

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Spain favoured against Czechia

Our model makes Czechia 10% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Spain at 69%. The goal projection is 0.63 for Czechia against 1.96 for Spain — a commanding edge to Spain on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Spain is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 14%; 0-1 14%; 1-1 10%; 0-3 9%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Czechia and Spain
Czechia		Spain
4	Played	4
0-0-4	W-D-L	4-0-0
0.00	Pts / game	3.00
0.50	Goals for / game	3.00
2.50	Goals against / game	1.25
75%	Over 2.5	100%
50%	BTTS	100%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	0%
0-0-2	Home record	2-0-0
0-0-2	Away record	2-0-0
L4	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Czechia · Spain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
5.3	Shots	14.8
1.5	Shots on target	6.3
1.0	Corners	5.0
2.67	Cards	1.00
11.3	Fouls	11.5
36	Possession %	65
0.17	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.3	Shots	8.3
6.3	Shots on target	3.5
5.8	Corners	2.8
1.00	Cards	3.50
10.5	Fouls	11.5
64	Possession %	36
2.05	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Czechia	Metric	Spain
0.40	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.56	Expected goals (xG)	2.22 (better)
	Big chances
1.40	Shots on target	7.40 (better)
6.80	Total shots	15.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	5.80 (better)
39.4	Possession %	64.6 (better)
374	Passes	706 (better)
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	13.40
2.25 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Czechia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Spain wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Spain v Czechia3–12026-10-03