Home win predictions today and this week

Home wins: how often, league by league

The share of this season’s finished matches in each league that ended this way; across all 38 leagues listed, 44% of 5,550 matches. A probability on this page well above its league’s rate is the model seeing something in the two sides; one close to it is close to an ordinary match there.

Leagues with at least 10 finished matches this season. Ninety minutes only. More on the statistics hub.

How these are chosen

Each fixture’s probability is the model’s chance of a home win in ninety minutes, from the scoreline distribution it fits for the match, home advantage included. The list ranks the strongest home favourites first; a short price usually goes with them, so the match page’s comparison with the bookmakers’ price is the figure to check before backing one.

How much is home advantage worth?

Typically a few tenths of a goal, varying by league and season; the model estimates it from results rather than assuming a fixed amount. Matches at a neutral venue are modelled without it and marked as such.

Does a high probability mean a good bet?

Not by itself. A 75% chance at a price of 1.25 is fair value and no more; the advised bets are the fixtures where the best available price beats the model’s and the market’s view together, and most of the matches listed here are not among them.

League rates are on the statistics hub; the method is set out in full under how it works.