Netherlands v Greece

Advised bets

Members only

Model pick: Total goals

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

Unlock every pick Already a member? Sign in →

Members only

Model pick: Asian handicap

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

Unlock every pick Already a member? Sign in →

Our probabilities against the market

Members

Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

Unlock every pick

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Netherlands favoured against Greece

Our model makes Netherlands 44% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Greece at 28%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Netherlands against 1.01 for Greece — a clear edge to Netherlands on expected output. A combined 2.36 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Netherlands and Greece
Netherlands		Greece
4	Played	4
2-2-0	W-D-L	2-2-0
2.00	Pts / game	2.00
1.75	Goals for / game	1.25
1.25	Goals against / game	0.75
75%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	25%
1-1-0	Home record	0-2-0
1-1-0	Away record	2-0-0
W1	Streak	D2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Netherlands · Greece

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
22.0	Shots	11.8
7.5	Shots on target	4.0
7.5	Corners	4.0
1.25	Cards	2.50
10.5	Fouls	8.0
64	Possession %	36
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	16.3
4.0	Shots on target	4.5
3.5	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	1.50
10.5	Fouls	11.8
36	Possession %	64
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Netherlands	Metric	Greece
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.48 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.82
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
18.80 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	3.60
57.4 (better)	Possession %	40.4
530 (better)	Passes	374
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	8.80 (better)
2.60	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Netherlands wins: 0
Draws: 1
Greece wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Greece v Netherlands2–22026-10-01