This week
Model vs market
The upcoming fixtures where our probabilities differ most from the best price on offer.
For every market the model prices, this compares its probability with the probability the best available price implies. Market-implied probabilities include the bookmaker’s margin, so they sum to slightly more than 100% — we have not removed it, because removing it requires assumptions we would rather not hide inside a table.
A large disagreement is not a claim that we are right. The market is sharp, and most disagreements are the model missing something — a line-up, a motivation — that the price already knows. It is where to look, not what to back.
The competitions where the model has the fullest record on both sides come first. Domestic cup ties against lower-league and amateur sides, where it has little to go on and its numbers are least reliable, are listed after them.
| Fixture | Selection | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians v BotafogoBrasileirão Série A · | Corinthians | 40.5% | 53.2%Betano | -12.7 |
| Coritiba v SantosBrasileirão Série A · | Under 2.5 | 35.8% | 47.2%Betano | -11.4 |
| Club Queretaro v MonterreyLiga MX · | Monterrey | 38.4% | 49.8%Dafabet | -11.4 |
| Mirassol v Atletico-MGBrasileirão Série A · | Over 2.5 | 42.2% | 53.2%Betano | -11.0 |
| Gremio v BahiaBrasileirão Série A · | Over 3.5 | 25.0% | 35.7%Betano | -10.7 |