Weekly
Model vs market
Where our numbers disagreed most with the betting market — and how those disagreements actually turned out.
These are the fixtures where our probability was furthest from the price the market settled on. Market-implied probabilities below include the bookmaker’s margin, so they sum to slightly more than 100% — we have not removed it, because removing it requires assumptions we would rather not hide inside a table.
A large disagreement is not a claim that we are right. Most of the time the market is sharper than we are, and this page exists partly to show how often that is true.
Not enough closing prices captured yet to compare against. This page fills in once fixtures have run with odds recorded before kick-off.