Predicted Edge

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Away win predictions today and this week

Fixtures where the away side is the model’s strongest favourite — rarer, and worth checking against the table.

270 published matches in the next 14 days, strongest first; the 60 strongest are listed, and the rest are on their day pages. 208 more fixtures get a prediction at least 24 hours before kick-off.

An away win means the away side is ahead after ninety minutes. This season it has happened in 30% of 5,550 matches across 38 leagues, from 40% (Primeira Liga) to 9% (A-League). Of the 270 matches with a published prediction in the next 14 days, the model’s highest probability is for San Marino v Belarus (Thursday 12 November), at 77%.

Away win predictions today 6

UEFA Nations League4Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Friendlies1Prediction

Away win predictions tomorrow 12

UEFA Nations League6Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Coupe de France2Prediction
Segunda División1Prediction
Friendlies2Prediction

Away win predictions later this week and next 42

UEFA Nations League5Prediction
Brasileirão Série A3Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Coupe de France18Prediction
League One4Prediction
League Two1Prediction
Segunda División1Prediction
Friendlies9Prediction

Probabilities are estimates from a Dixon–Coles model fitted on results and expected goals. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

Every market for every match: today’s predictions · tomorrow’s predictions

Away wins: how often, league by league

The share of this season’s finished matches in each league that ended this way; across all 38 leagues listed, 30% of 5,550 matches. A probability on this page well above its league’s rate is the model seeing something in the two sides; one close to it is close to an ordinary match there.

LeaguePlayedAway wins
Primeira Liga9840%
Eredivisie10838%
Swiss Super League7837%
Liga MX14336%
Serie A11036%
Süper Lig9936%
Chance Liga11136%
Scottish Premiership7536%
Allsvenskan22435%
Saudi Pro League10434%
The other 28 leagues
LeaguePlayedAway wins
K League 121033%
Ligue 210833%
Segunda División14033%
Serie B10932%
Croatian HNL6332%
J1 League14031%
Hungarian NB I7731%
Championship18031%
Ligue 19031%
Premier League10031%
Greek Super League6930%
Belgian Pro League9930%
Eliteserien20830%
La Liga11930%
Austrian Bundesliga7229%
Chinese Super League24029%
Major League Soccer51029%
League One15828%
Bundesliga8128%
Ekstraklasa12428%
Veikkausliiga17928%
Liga Profesional Argentina49528%
Danish Superliga8426%
2. Bundesliga9925%
Brasileirão Série A33924%
Romanian Liga I12023%
League Two16420%
A-League239%

Leagues with at least 10 finished matches this season. Ninety minutes only. More on the statistics hub.

How these are chosen

Each fixture’s probability is the model’s chance of an away win in ninety minutes, from the scoreline distribution it fits for the match. Away wins are the rarest result in most leagues, so the figures here are lower than on the home-win list, and a strong away favourite usually means a wide gap in quality between the sides.

How often does the away side win?
In most European leagues roughly three matches in ten, with the home side winning a little under half and the rest drawn; the statistics hub has each league’s split this season.
Why are away wins harder to call?
Because the model’s estimate of a weaker side’s chance at home rests on a few goals’ difference in expected scoring, and the draw absorbs much of it. The matches at the top of this list are the ones where the quality gap is large enough to overcome that.

League rates are on the statistics hub; the method is set out in full under how it works.

Match result picks: how the price moved

Members get each pick the moment it is published; the free picks follow later in the morning and the rest are public once the day is over. The last 10 settled match result picks, with the price each was published at and the last price before kick-off, whichever way it moved.

A shorter closing price means the market moved towards the pick after it was published. It says nothing about whether the pick won; the day pages carry every outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month.