Moldova v Kazakhstan

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Model pick: Match result

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Members only

Model pick: Total goals

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

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Our probabilities against the market

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Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kazakhstan favoured against Moldova

Our model makes Moldova 27% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Kazakhstan at 47%. The goal projection is 1.14 for Moldova against 1.58 for Kazakhstan — a clear edge to Kazakhstan on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Moldova and Kazakhstan
Moldova		Kazakhstan
4	Played	4
1-1-2	W-D-L	0-2-2
1.00	Pts / game	0.50
0.75	Goals for / game	1.25
2.00	Goals against / game	1.75
50%	Over 2.5	75%
50%	BTTS	100%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	0%
0-1-1	Home record	0-1-1
1-0-1	Away record	0-1-1
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Moldova · Kazakhstan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	14.0
4.5	Shots on target	3.0
5.5	Corners	5.5
0.75	Cards	2.00
12.3	Fouls	11.5
46	Possession %	54
1.15	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	15.5
3.5	Shots on target	6.3
5.8	Corners	6.8
1.25	Cards	1.00
9.5	Fouls	9.3
54	Possession %	46
2.14	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Moldova	Metric	Kazakhstan
0.80	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.24 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.56
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
15.75 (better)	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	5.40 (better)
46.6	Possession %	48.8 (better)
421	Passes	424 (better)
	Tackles
12.80 (better)	Fouls	13.60
1.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.40

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Moldova wins: 1
Draws: 0
Kazakhstan wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Kazakhstan v Moldova1–22026-10-02