Predicted Edge

By market

Over 1.5 goals predictions today and this week

Matches most likely to have at least two goals. Nearly every match qualifies to some degree, so only the strongest cases are worth a look.

270 published matches in the next 14 days, strongest first; the 60 strongest are listed, and the rest are on their day pages. 208 more fixtures get a prediction at least 24 hours before kick-off.

Over 1.5 goals means two goals or more in ninety minutes, both sides combined. This season it has happened in 78% of 5,550 matches across 38 leagues, from 89% (Eredivisie) to 66% (Liga Profesional Argentina). Of the 270 matches with a published prediction in the next 14 days, the model’s highest probability is for Dijon v Orleans (Friday 13 November), at 93%.

Over 1.5 goals predictions today 9

UEFA Nations League2Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Friendlies6Prediction

Over 1.5 goals predictions tomorrow 7

Coupe de France1Prediction
Friendlies6Prediction

Over 1.5 goals predictions later this week and next 44

UEFA Nations League3Prediction
Brasileirão Série A3Prediction
Coupe de France16Prediction
League One1Prediction
League Two1Prediction
Segunda División2Prediction
Friendlies18Prediction

Probabilities are estimates from a Dixon–Coles model fitted on results and expected goals. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

Every market for every match: today’s predictions · tomorrow’s predictions

Over 1.5 goals: how often, league by league

The share of this season’s finished matches in each league that ended this way; across all 38 leagues listed, 78% of 5,550 matches. A probability on this page well above its league’s rate is the model seeing something in the two sides; one close to it is close to an ordinary match there.

LeaguePlayedOver 1.5 goals
Eredivisie10889%
Austrian Bundesliga7289%
Eliteserien20887%
A-League2387%
Swiss Super League7886%
Serie A11085%
Danish Superliga8483%
Major League Soccer51083%
Ekstraklasa12482%
Bundesliga8181%
The other 28 leagues
LeaguePlayedOver 1.5 goals
Greek Super League6981%
Belgian Pro League9981%
Hungarian NB I7781%
Liga MX14380%
Chinese Super League24080%
J1 League14080%
Ligue 19080%
League One15880%
Serie B10979%
Süper Lig9979%
Scottish Premiership7579%
Allsvenskan22478%
Saudi Pro League10478%
Brasileirão Série A33978%
Championship18078%
Croatian HNL6378%
Chance Liga11177%
2. Bundesliga9977%
League Two16476%
Segunda División14076%
La Liga11976%
Premier League10075%
K League 121072%
Romanian Liga I12072%
Veikkausliiga17972%
Primeira Liga9871%
Ligue 210871%
Liga Profesional Argentina49566%

Leagues with at least 10 finished matches this season. Ninety minutes only. More on the statistics hub.

How these are chosen

Each fixture’s probability is the model’s chance of two goals or more, from the scoreline distribution it fits for the match. Most fixtures clear this line, so the figures here are high and the ranking separates the near-certain from the merely likely; the price on a 90% call is correspondingly short.

What does over 1.5 goals mean?
That the match has two goals or more in ninety minutes, both sides combined. 1–1 wins the bet; 1–0 loses it.
Why is the price on over 1.5 goals so short?
Because it lands in roughly three matches out of four. A high probability is already in the price, so the edge, if there is one, is small; the match page shows the model’s fair price beside the best available one.

League rates are on the statistics hub; the method is set out in full under how it works.

Goals (over/under) picks: how the price moved

Members get each pick the moment it is published; the free picks follow later in the morning and the rest are public once the day is over. The last 10 settled goals (over/under) picks, with the price each was published at and the last price before kick-off, whichever way it moved.

A shorter closing price means the market moved towards the pick after it was published. It says nothing about whether the pick won; the day pages carry every outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month.