Club Queretaro v 
Puebla
Match statistics
| Club Queretaro | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 5 | Offsides | 0 |
| 454 | Passes | 376 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 1.49 | xG | 1.34 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Club Queretaro 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.51 – 1.06
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Club Queretaro -0.5
Why this price?
Back Club Queretaro -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.80 with Betano — Club Queretaro must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.66. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 8.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Club Queretaro 1.51, Puebla 1.06.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.22 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.11. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 5.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.05 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Club Queretaro 1.51, Puebla 1.06.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Club Queretaro | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.85 Betano | 54.1% | -6.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.90 Dafabet | 25.6% | +1.3 |
| Match result | Puebla | 25.9% | 3.86 | 4.40 Betano | 22.7% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.25 Betano | 80.0% | -6.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.7% | 3.75 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | +3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.11 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | -8.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | +7.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.8% | 3.88 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -8.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | -7.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.4% | 2.06 | 2.25 Betano | 44.4% | +4.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Club Queretaro favoured against Puebla
Our model makes Club Queretaro 47% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 27% and Puebla at 26%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Club Queretaro against 1.06 for Puebla — a clear edge to Club Queretaro on expected output. A combined 2.57 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Club Queretaro | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 16 |
| 6-2-7 | W-D-L | 5-4-7 |
| 1.33 | Pts / game | 1.19 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 1.19 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.44 |
| 53% | Over 2.5 | 38% |
| 53% | BTTS | 56% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2-1-4 | Home record | 1-3-3 |
| 4-1-3 | Away record | 4-1-4 |
| L5 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Club Queretaro · Puebla
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.8 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 6.3 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 2.02 | Cards | 1.29 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 45 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.65 | xG | 1.01 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.1 | Shots | 15.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.77 | Cards | 1.57 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 7.6 |
| 55 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.80 | xG | 1.72 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Club Queretaro | Metric | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.62 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 | Shots on target | 4.60 (better) |
| 14.60 (better) | Total shots | 13.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Corners | 4.20 |
| 47.2 (better) | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 434 (better) | Passes | 390 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.20 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Club Queretaro wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Puebla wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Club Queretaro v Puebla0–22026-11-09
- Puebla v Club Queretaro1–22026-04-25
- Club Queretaro v Puebla3–12025-10-04
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 | Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +15 | 30 | Club America won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +11 | 30 | Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +14 | 27 | Toluca won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 27 | Atlas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Leon won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 22 | CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 21 | Monterrey won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 19 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 15 | Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 14 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 | Necaxa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -21 | 11 | FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5 |