Predicted Edge

By market

Over 2.5 goals predictions today and this week

Matches our model rates most likely to have three or more goals. The probability is derived from both teams’ expected goals, not from the odds.

270 published matches in the next 14 days, strongest first; the 60 strongest are listed, and the rest are on their day pages. 208 more fixtures get a prediction at least 24 hours before kick-off.

Over 2.5 goals means three or more goals in ninety minutes, both sides combined. This season it has happened in 55% of 5,550 matches across 38 leagues, from 74% (Swiss Super League) to 38% (Liga Profesional Argentina). Of the 270 matches with a published prediction in the next 14 days, the model’s highest probability is for Dijon v Orleans (Friday 13 November), at 80%.

Over 2.5 goals predictions today 8

UEFA Nations League2Prediction
Copa del Rey1Prediction
Friendlies5Prediction

Over 2.5 goals predictions tomorrow 7

Coupe de France1Prediction
Friendlies6Prediction

Over 2.5 goals predictions later this week and next 45

UEFA Nations League3Prediction
Brasileirão Série A3Prediction
Coupe de France16Prediction
League One2Prediction
League Two1Prediction
Segunda División2Prediction
Friendlies18Prediction

Probabilities are estimates from a Dixon–Coles model fitted on results and expected goals. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

Every market for every match: today’s predictions · tomorrow’s predictions

Over 2.5 goals: how often, league by league

The share of this season’s finished matches in each league that ended this way; across all 38 leagues listed, 55% of 5,550 matches. A probability on this page well above its league’s rate is the model seeing something in the two sides; one close to it is close to an ordinary match there.

LeaguePlayedOver 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League7874%
Eredivisie10872%
Bundesliga8170%
Austrian Bundesliga7265%
A-League2365%
Major League Soccer51064%
Eliteserien20864%
Belgian Pro League9964%
Championship18062%
Croatian HNL6362%
The other 28 leagues
LeaguePlayedOver 2.5 goals
Ekstraklasa12461%
Serie A11060%
Süper Lig9960%
Chinese Super League24059%
2. Bundesliga9958%
Scottish Premiership7557%
J1 League14057%
Saudi Pro League10457%
Ligue 19057%
Danish Superliga8456%
Chance Liga11156%
Hungarian NB I7756%
La Liga11955%
Liga MX14353%
Allsvenskan22453%
Primeira Liga9853%
League One15853%
Greek Super League6952%
Brasileirão Série A33951%
Segunda División14051%
Ligue 210848%
Serie B10948%
Premier League10047%
League Two16447%
K League 121047%
Romanian Liga I12047%
Veikkausliiga17944%
Liga Profesional Argentina49538%

Leagues with at least 10 finished matches this season. Ninety minutes only. More on the statistics hub.

How these are chosen

Each fixture’s probability comes from the scoreline distribution the model fits for it: expected goals for both sides, adjusted for the opponent and for home advantage, turned into the chance of every score and summed over every score with three goals or more. The list is ranked by that figure, so the matches at the top are the ones the model thinks likeliest to be open, not the ones with the shortest price.

What does over 2.5 goals mean?
That the match has three goals or more in ninety minutes, both sides combined. 2–1 wins the bet; 1–1 and 2–0 lose it. The half avoids a push.
How often does over 2.5 goals land?
Around half the time in most European top flights, varying by league and season — the statistics hub shows each league’s current rate. A probability above 60% here is a strong call by the model, not a certainty: it still expects such a match to stay under four times in ten.

League rates are on the statistics hub; the method is set out in full under how it works.

Goals (over/under) picks: how the price moved

Members get each pick the moment it is published; the free picks follow later in the morning and the rest are public once the day is over. The last 10 settled goals (over/under) picks, with the price each was published at and the last price before kick-off, whichever way it moved.

A shorter closing price means the market moved towards the pick after it was published. It says nothing about whether the pick won; the day pages carry every outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month.