Torreense v Ararat-Armenia

3–236th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Torreense		Ararat-Armenia
12	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	8
4	Corners	6
13	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	5
1	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	4
333	Passes	479
42%	Possession %	58%
1.90	xG	1.49

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Torreense 50%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.21

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Torreense -0.5

1.78Betano · fair 1.59 · qualifies at 1.64+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Torreense -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.78 with Betano — Torreense must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 71%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.59. The offered 1.78 implies only 56%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Torreense 1.79, Ararat-Armenia 1.21.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

3.60BetVictor · fair 3.32 · qualifies at 3.46+ · 0.80u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.60 with BetVictor — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.32. The offered 3.60 implies only 28%, so the price is 8.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.80 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Torreense 1.79, Ararat-Armenia 1.21.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Torreense	50.3%	1.99	1.81 Dafabet	55.2%	-5.0
Match result	Draw	24.3%	4.11	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	-1.3
Match result	Ararat-Armenia	25.4%	3.94	5.30 Betano	18.9%	+6.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.6%	1.24	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.4%	5.17	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-9.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.7%	1.73	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+7.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.3%	2.36	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-10.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.3%	2.83	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+7.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.7%	1.54	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-10.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.1%	1.69	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+9.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.9%	2.44	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-12.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Torreense favoured against Ararat-Armenia

Our model makes Torreense 50% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Ararat-Armenia at 25%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Torreense against 1.21 for Ararat-Armenia — a substantial edge to Torreense on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Torreense and Ararat-Armenia
Torreense		Ararat-Armenia
—	Played	6
—	W-D-L	3-0-3
—	Pts / game	1.50
—	Goals for / game	1.50
—	Goals against / game	1.33
—	Over 2.5	50%
—	BTTS	50%
—	Clean sheets	33%
—	Failed to score	17%
—	Home record	3-0-0
—	Away record	0-0-3
—	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Torreense · Ararat-Armenia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
7.7	Shots	14.3
3.3	Shots on target	5.3
3.3	Corners	4.7
2.33	Cards	3.33
12.3	Fouls	11.3
41	Possession %	52
0.92	xG	0.98
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.3	Shots	14.0
6.0	Shots on target	6.3
7.3	Corners	4.0
4.33	Cards	2.33
16.0	Fouls	16.7
59	Possession %	48
1.81	xG	1.90
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Torreense	Metric	Ararat-Armenia
1.00	Goals scored	1.00
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
0.40	Expected goals (xG)	0.73 (better)
	Big chances
2.60	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
7.60	Total shots	12.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.60	Corners	4.00 (better)
42.4	Possession %	48.5 (better)
301	Passes	445 (better)
	Tackles
12.50	Fouls	11.50 (better)
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.60	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Torreense wins: 1
Draws: 0
Ararat-Armenia wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Torreense v Ararat-Armenia3–22026-11-05

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12	Benfica won 4 of the last 4
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12	Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10	Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10	Juventus won 3 of the last 4
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10	Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7	Sunderland won 2 of the last 4
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7	NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7	Lyon won 2 of the last 4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6	AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6	OFI won 2 of the last 4
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6	Rennes won 1 of the last 4
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6	Torreense won 2 of the last 4
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5	Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4
22	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4	1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4
23	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4	Celje won 1 of the last 4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 4
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Plzen won 1 of the last 4
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Marseille won 1 of the last 4
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Celtic won 1 of the last 4
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4