Silkeborg v 
Lyngby
Match statistics
| Silkeborg | Lyngby | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 5 |
| 501 | Passes | 550 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 0.93 | xG | 0.18 |
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 72%
- Over 3.5
- 51%
- Both score
- 72%
- Model pick
- Silkeborg 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.96 – 1.78
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Lyngby +0.25
Why this price?
Back Lyngby +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.27 with BetVictor — Lyngby starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.04. The offered 2.27 implies only 44%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Silkeborg 1.96, Lyngby 1.78.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.42 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 40%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.24. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 7.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.39 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Silkeborg 1.96, Lyngby 1.78.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Silkeborg | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.48 Dafabet | 40.3% | +2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.2% | 4.50 | 3.75 Dafabet | 26.7% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | -16.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +8.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 28.2% | 3.55 | 2.55 BetVictor | 39.2% | -11.0 |
| Match result | Lyngby | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.80 Bet365 | 35.7% | -0.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 89.1% | 1.12 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | +7.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 10.9% | 9.20 | 5.00 BetVictor | 20.0% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +12.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | -12.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | +13.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Silkeborg favoured against Lyngby
Our model makes Silkeborg 43% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Lyngby at 35%. The goal projection is 1.96 for Silkeborg against 1.78 for Lyngby — a slight edge to Silkeborg on expected output. A combined 3.74 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 5%
This season
| Silkeborg | Lyngby | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 3-6-5 | W-D-L | 2-5-7 |
| 1.07 | Pts / game | 0.79 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.36 |
| 1.71 | Goals against / game | 2.07 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 64% | BTTS | 71% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 2-4-1 | Home record | 1-5-1 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 1-0-6 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Silkeborg · Lyngby
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.6 | Shots | 12.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 2.8 | Corners | 2.2 |
| 2.80 | Cards | 1.60 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 50 | Possession % | 50 |
| 0.97 | xG | 1.33 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.6 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.40 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 14.8 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 50 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.67 | xG | 2.11 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Silkeborg | Metric | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 3.80 |
| 1.12 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 | Shots on target | 5.50 (better) |
| 11.00 | Total shots | 12.25 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.60 | Corners | 3.50 (better) |
| 51.2 (better) | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 528 (better) | Passes | 450 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.80 (better) | Fouls | 13.75 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 1.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.20 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Silkeborg wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Lyngby wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Silkeborg v Lyngby1–02026-11-06
- Lyngby v Silkeborg0–42026-09-18
Danish Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | +17 | 32 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | +12 | 32 | FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Viborg | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +9 | 26 | Viborg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 23 | FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Brondby | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | +2 | 22 | Brondby won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Odense | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 | Odense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | AC Horsens | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16 | AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Aarhus won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Silkeborg | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 15 | Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Lyngby | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -10 | 11 | Lyngby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Randers FC | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 11 | Randers FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5 |