Flamengo v 
Atletico Paranaense
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Flamengo 68%
- Likely score
- 2-0 11%
- Expected goals
- 2.24 – 0.89
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Flamengo favoured against Atletico Paranaense
Our model makes Flamengo 68% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 19% and Atletico Paranaense at 13%. The goal projection is 2.24 for Flamengo against 0.89 for Atletico Paranaense — a commanding edge to Flamengo on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Flamengo is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-1 9%
- 3-0 8%
This season
| Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 23-7-4 | W-D-L | 15-9-10 |
| 2.24 | Pts / game | 1.59 |
| 2.09 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 0.85 | Goals against / game | 1.26 |
| 65% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 53% | BTTS | 59% |
| 41% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 6% | Failed to score | 24% |
| 13-3-1 | Home record | 9-5-3 |
| 10-4-3 | Away record | 6-4-7 |
| W5 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Flamengo · Atletico Paranaense
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.3 | Shots | 16.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8.0 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 7.1 | Corners | 8.4 |
| 2.49 | Cards | 2.45 |
| 11.1 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 57 | Possession % | 56 |
| 2.30 | xG | 0.99 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 11.3 | Shots | 12.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 3.7 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 2.64 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 43 | Possession % | 44 |
| 0.84 | xG | 1.20 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Flamengo | Metric | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.19 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.94 |
| Big chances | ||
| 8.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 18.60 (better) | Total shots | 15.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 9.00 (better) | Corners | 8.60 |
| 61.8 (better) | Possession % | 56.0 |
| 628 (better) | Passes | 494 |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.60 (better) | Fouls | 13.80 |
| 1.33 | Offsides | 0.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.60 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Flamengo wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Atletico Paranaense wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo1–12026-05-17
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |