Sydney v 
Central Coast Mariners
Match statistics
| Sydney | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 395 | Passes | 425 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 70%
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Over 3.5
- 22%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- Sydney 49%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.46 – 0.94
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.35 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.11. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sydney 1.46, Central Coast Mariners 0.94.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Sydney -0.75
Why this price?
Back Sydney -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.62 with Bet365 — Sydney must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 82%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.62 implies only 62%, so the price is 6.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sydney 1.46, Central Coast Mariners 0.94.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | +12.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | -9.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 52.5% | 1.91 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +6.0 |
| Match result | Sydney | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | -15.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | 4.60 Betfair | 21.7% | +6.0 |
| Match result | Central Coast Mariners | 23.7% | 4.22 | 6.50 Bet365 | 15.4% | +8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | -12.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +10.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 43.2% | 2.32 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | -17.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | +13.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 22.2% | 4.50 | 2.57 Betano | 38.9% | -16.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sydney favoured against Central Coast Mariners
Our model makes Sydney 49% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Central Coast Mariners at 24%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Sydney against 0.94 for Central Coast Mariners — a substantial edge to Sydney on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 13%
- 0-0 10%
- 2-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Sydney | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 2-1-1 | W-D-L | 0-2-2 |
| 1.75 | Pts / game | 0.50 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 2.25 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 75% | BTTS | 75% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2-1-0 | Home record | 0-1-0 |
| 0-0-1 | Away record | 0-1-2 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sydney · Central Coast Mariners
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.3 | Shots | 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 48 | Possession % | 53 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 13.8 | Shots | 13.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.75 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 52 | Possession % | 47 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Sydney | Metric | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.60 |
| 0.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.74 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 3.50 (better) |
| 12.50 (better) | Total shots | 10.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Corners | 2.00 |
| 46.5 | Possession % | 49.5 (better) |
| 367 | Passes | 424 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 4.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.50 | Yellow cards | 2.50 (better) |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sydney wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Central Coast Mariners wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Sydney v Central Coast Mariners4–12026-11-06
- Central Coast Mariners v Sydney1–22025-12-06
- Sydney v Central Coast Mariners2–02025-10-25
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 | Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Sydney | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Sydney won 2 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Macarthur won 1 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Auckland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | Auckland won 1 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3 |