Sturm Graz v Celje

5th2–325th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sturm Graz		Celje
31	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	7
12	Corners	2
16	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
490	Passes	335
62%	Possession %	38%
2.92	xG	1.27

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Sturm Graz 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.64 – 0.99

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sturm Graz -0.75

1.70Bet365 · fair 1.53 · qualifies at 1.58+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sturm Graz -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Bet365 — Sturm Graz must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 79%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sturm Graz 1.64, Celje 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.42Betano · fair 2.25 · qualifies at 2.34+ · 1.35u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.42 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 40%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.25. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.35 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sturm Graz 1.64, Celje 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sturm Graz	51.9%	1.93	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-11.8
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.87	4.85 Betano	20.6%	+5.2
Match result	Celje	22.3%	4.48	6.80 Dafabet	14.7%	+7.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.3%	1.34	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-9.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.7%	3.90	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.8%	2.05	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-13.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.2%	1.95	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	+11.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.0%	3.71	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-13.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.0%	1.37	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+10.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.2%	1.95	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-8.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.8%	2.05	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sturm Graz favoured against Celje

Our model makes Sturm Graz 52% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Celje at 22%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Sturm Graz against 0.99 for Celje — a substantial edge to Sturm Graz on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sturm Graz and Celje
Sturm Graz		Celje
12	Played	6
5-4-3	W-D-L	1-4-1
1.58	Pts / game	1.17
1.83	Goals for / game	1.50
1.42	Goals against / game	1.33
50%	Over 2.5	33%
67%	BTTS	83%
25%	Clean sheets	17%
8%	Failed to score	0%
3-2-1	Home record	1-2-0
2-2-2	Away record	0-2-1
L1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sturm Graz · Celje

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	9.7
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
6.0	Corners	2.3
2.22	Cards	2.67
13.9	Fouls	12.0
47	Possession %	49
1.78	xG	1.26
9 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.4	Shots	20.0
4.2	Shots on target	5.7
3.3	Corners	7.0
2.00	Cards	1.67
12.4	Fouls	11.7
53	Possession %	51
1.53	xG	2.25
9 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sturm Graz	Metric	Celje
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
2.04 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.25
	Big chances
5.60 (better)	Shots on target	2.50
16.40 (better)	Total shots	10.50
	Touches in opp. box
5.80 (better)	Corners	2.50
42.0	Possession %	54.0 (better)
303	Passes	592 (better)
	Tackles
14.80	Fouls	11.50 (better)
2.80	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sturm Graz wins: 0
Draws: 0
Celje wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Sturm Graz v Celje2–32026-11-05

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12	Benfica won 4 of the last 4
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12	Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10	Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10	Juventus won 3 of the last 4
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10	Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7	Sunderland won 2 of the last 4
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7	NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7	Lyon won 2 of the last 4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6	AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6	OFI won 2 of the last 4
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6	Rennes won 1 of the last 4
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6	Torreense won 2 of the last 4
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5	Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4
22	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4	1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4
23	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4	Celje won 1 of the last 4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 4
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Plzen won 1 of the last 4
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Marseille won 1 of the last 4
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Celtic won 1 of the last 4
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4