FC Lugano v 
Kauno Žalgiris
Match statistics
| FC Lugano | Kauno Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 691 | Passes | 362 |
| 65% | Possession % | 35% |
| 1.44 | xG | 0.29 |
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 64%
- Over 3.5
- 42%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- FC Lugano 77%
- Likely score
- 2-0 12%
- Expected goals
- 2.60 – 0.71
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.12. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 8.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: FC Lugano 2.60, Kauno Žalgiris 0.71.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FC Lugano | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.20 Bet365 | 83.3% | -5.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 14.9% | 6.70 | 8.40 Dafabet | 11.9% | +3.0 |
| Match result | Kauno Žalgiris | 7.6% | 13.17 | 19.00 Betano | 5.3% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | -2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 15.4% | 6.50 | 7.50 BetVictor | 13.3% | +2.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | 1.47 Betano | 68.0% | -3.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 3.13 BetVictor | 31.9% | +3.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.90 Betano | 52.6% | +5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 47.5% | 2.10 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -1.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Lugano favoured against Kauno Žalgiris
Our model makes FC Lugano 77% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 15% and Kauno Žalgiris at 8%. The goal projection is 2.60 for FC Lugano against 0.71 for Kauno Žalgiris — a commanding edge to FC Lugano on expected output. A combined 3.31 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Lugano is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 23% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 12%
- 3-0 11%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 3-1 8%
This season
| FC Lugano | Kauno Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 6 |
| 11-1-1 | W-D-L | 2-2-2 |
| 2.62 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 2.77 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.15 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 92% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 62% | BTTS | 50% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 6-1-0 | Home record | 1-1-1 |
| 5-0-1 | Away record | 1-1-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Lugano · Kauno Žalgiris
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.9 | Shots | 7.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 1.3 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 1.0 |
| 2.95 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 30 |
| 1.73 | xG | 0.63 |
| 8 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 16.3 | Shots | 23.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 7.3 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 2.58 | Cards | 0.67 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 70 |
| 1.32 | xG | 2.94 |
| 8 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| FC Lugano | Metric | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.13 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.80 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Shots on target | 1.50 |
| 16.50 (better) | Total shots | 8.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.25 (better) | Corners | 0.50 |
| 47.3 (better) | Possession % | 27.5 |
| 417 (better) | Passes | 270 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.50 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FC Lugano wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Kauno Žalgiris wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris3–02026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |