Finland v 
San Marino
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 68%
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Finland 78%
- Likely score
- 2-0 11%
- Expected goals
- 2.73 – 0.77
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Finland favoured against San Marino
Our model makes Finland 78% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 14% and San Marino at 8%. The goal projection is 2.73 for Finland against 0.77 for San Marino — a commanding edge to Finland on expected output. A combined 3.50 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Finland is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 22% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 11%
- 3-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 3-1 8%
This season
| Finland | San Marino | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 2-1-1 | W-D-L | 0-0-4 |
| 1.75 | Pts / game | 0.00 |
| 2.25 | Goals for / game | 0.25 |
| 0.50 | Goals against / game | 4.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 25% | BTTS | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 75% |
| 1-1-0 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 1-0-1 | Away record | 0-0-2 |
| L1 | Streak | L4 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Finland · San Marino
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.3 | Shots | 6.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.08 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 68 | Possession % | 31 |
| — | xG | 0.61 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 7.5 | Shots | 19.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Shots on target | 7.8 |
| 2.3 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 3.25 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 33 | Possession % | 69 |
| — | xG | 2.72 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Finland | Metric | San Marino |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 3.60 |
| 1.69 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.52 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 (better) | Shots on target | 2.00 |
| 13.40 (better) | Total shots | 6.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Corners | 2.50 |
| 63.0 (better) | Possession % | 30.8 |
| 578 (better) | Passes | 275 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 (better) | Fouls | 15.25 |
| 1.40 | Offsides | 1.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Finland wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- San Marino wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 7.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- San Marino v Finland0–72026-09-26