England v 
Croatia
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 76%
- Over 3.5
- 56%
- Both score
- 73%
- Model pick
- England 52%
- Likely score
- 2-1 8%
- Expected goals
- 2.31 – 1.65
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 4 of 5Model pick: Total goals
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
England favoured against Croatia
Our model makes England 52% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Croatia at 27%. The goal projection is 2.31 for England against 1.65 for Croatia — a substantial edge to England on expected output. A combined 3.96 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 8%
- 1-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 6%
- 1-2 6%
This season
| England | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 3-0-1 | W-D-L | 1-0-3 |
| 2.25 | Pts / game | 0.75 |
| 3.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game | 3.50 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 25% | BTTS | 75% |
| 75% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1-0-1 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 2-0-0 | Away record | 1-0-1 |
| W3 | Streak | L3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. England · Croatia
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.8 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.25 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 60 | Possession % | 39 |
| 2.05 | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 9.5 | Shots | 12.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 1.8 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.08 | Cards | 1.25 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 7.8 |
| 40 | Possession % | 61 |
| 0.17 | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| England | Metric | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 3.20 |
| 3.06 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 18.00 (better) | Total shots | 11.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.60 (better) | Corners | 3.40 |
| 59.0 (better) | Possession % | 39.0 |
| 596 (better) | Passes | 400 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.40 (better) | Fouls | 10.60 |
| 2.25 | Offsides | 0.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- England wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Croatia wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 6.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Croatia v England0–72026-10-03
- England v Croatia4–22026-06-17