Sevilla v 
Alaves
Match statistics
| Sevilla | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 391 | Passes | 262 |
| 60% | Possession % | 40% |
| 1.66 | xG | 0.60 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Sevilla 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.51 – 1.39
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Sevilla -0.5
Why this price?
Back Sevilla -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.08 with Bet365 — Sevilla must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.86. The offered 2.08 implies only 48%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sevilla 1.51, Alaves 1.39.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Over 2.5
Why this price?
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.22 with Betano — 3 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.35 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sevilla 1.51, Alaves 1.39.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sevilla | 39.7% | 2.52 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | -10.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.60 Bet365 | 27.8% | -1.9 |
| Match result | Alaves | 34.4% | 2.91 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | +12.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.44 Betano | 69.4% | +9.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | -11.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | 2.30 Betano | 43.5% | +11.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | -13.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | +10.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.26 BetVictor | 79.4% | -12.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 59.0% | 1.69 | 2.05 Bet365 | 48.8% | +10.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.0% | 2.44 | 1.85 William Hill | 54.1% | -13.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sevilla v Alaves: too close to call
Our model makes Sevilla 40% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Alaves at 34%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Sevilla against 1.39 for Alaves — a slight edge to Sevilla on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Sevilla | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 5-3-4 | W-D-L | 3-4-5 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 1.08 |
| 1.42 | Goals for / game | 1.25 |
| 1.58 | Goals against / game | 1.42 |
| 58% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 67% | BTTS | 58% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 3-1-2 | Home record | 3-1-2 |
| 2-2-2 | Away record | 0-3-3 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sevilla · Alaves
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.7 | Shots | 11.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 2.76 | Cards | 1.68 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 45 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.15 | xG | 0.89 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.3 | Shots | 13.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.57 | xG | 1.55 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Sevilla | Metric | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.38 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.67 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 15.33 (better) | Total shots | 12.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.67 (better) | Corners | 2.80 |
| 40.7 | Possession % | 41.6 (better) |
| 380 (better) | Passes | 376 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.00 | Fouls | 12.40 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.67 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.50 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sevilla wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Alaves wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 50%
- Sevilla v Alaves0–02026-11-06
- Sevilla v Alaves1–12026-02-14
- Alaves v Sevilla1–02025-12-17
- Alaves v Sevilla1–22025-09-20
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 33 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 30 | Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 26 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |