Rapid Vienna v 
Wolfsberger AC
Match statistics
| Rapid Vienna | Wolfsberger AC | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 706 | Passes | 345 |
| 67% | Possession % | 33% |
| 3.04 | xG | 0.31 |
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 63%
- Over 3.5
- 41%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Rapid Vienna 72%
- Likely score
- 2-0 11%
- Expected goals
- 2.41 – 0.84
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.05. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.19 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Rapid Vienna 2.41, Wolfsberger AC 0.84.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | -2.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +1.5 |
| Match result | Rapid Vienna | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.27 Bet365 | 78.7% | -7.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 17.5% | 5.72 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +3.2 |
| Match result | Wolfsberger AC | 10.7% | 9.31 | 13.00 William Hill | 7.7% | +3.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.11 Bet365 | 90.1% | -6.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.1% | 6.20 | 7.50 BetVictor | 13.3% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | -10.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 37.0% | 2.70 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +7.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -11.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.90 Betfair | 52.6% | +6.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rapid Vienna favoured against Wolfsberger AC
Our model makes Rapid Vienna 72% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 17% and Wolfsberger AC at 11%. The goal projection is 2.41 for Rapid Vienna against 0.84 for Wolfsberger AC — a commanding edge to Rapid Vienna on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Rapid Vienna is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 3-0 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-1 8%
This season
| Rapid Vienna | Wolfsberger AC | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 11-0-1 | W-D-L | 1-3-8 |
| 2.75 | Pts / game | 0.50 |
| 3.25 | Goals for / game | 0.67 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game | 2.17 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 58% |
| 42% | BTTS | 42% |
| 58% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 7-0-0 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 4-0-1 | Away record | 0-1-5 |
| W7 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rapid Vienna · Wolfsberger AC
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.6 | Shots | 12.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 8.6 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 57 | Possession % | 44 |
| 2.77 | xG | 1.01 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 10.6 | Shots | 17.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 1.70 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 43 | Possession % | 56 |
| 0.91 | xG | 2.52 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Rapid Vienna | Metric | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.72 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.76 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 2.67 |
| 14.25 (better) | Total shots | 11.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 5.00 |
| 58.8 (better) | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 599 (better) | Passes | 407 |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Fouls | 14.67 |
| 3.25 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 1.33 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Rapid Vienna wins
- 4
- Draws
- 0
- Wolfsberger AC wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 25%
- Rapid Vienna v Wolfsberger AC6–02026-11-06
- Wolfsberger AC v Rapid Vienna0–32026-09-12
- Rapid Vienna v Wolfsberger AC2–02026-02-21
- Wolfsberger AC v Rapid Vienna1–22025-08-24
Austrian Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +30 | 33 | Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | +24 | 30 | Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +15 | 25 | Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | TSV Hartberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 20 | TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 19 | Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Ried | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 | Ried won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 | WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 11 | Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 10 | SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -20 | 10 | Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 8 | Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -18 | 6 | Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5 |