Dijon v RED Star FC 93

6th1–08th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dijon		RED Star FC 93
15	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	0
4	Corners	2
14	Fouls	7
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
442	Passes	446
60%	Possession %	40%
1.25	xG	0.33

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: RED Star FC 93 42%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.73

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

3.00Betano · fair 2.71 · qualifies at 2.82+ · 1.32u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.00 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.71. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.32 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Dijon 1.56, RED Star FC 93 1.73.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Dijon	34.4%	2.91	2.85 Betano	35.1%	-0.7
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.16	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-4.6
Match result	RED Star FC 93	41.6%	2.40	2.60 Dafabet	38.5%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.4%	1.18	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.6%	6.42	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.7%	1.57	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.3%	2.76	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.6%	2.40	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	+4.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.4%	1.71	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.4%	1.53	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.6%	2.89	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-4.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

RED Star FC 93 favoured against Dijon

Our model makes Dijon 34% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 24% and RED Star FC 93 at 42%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Dijon against 1.73 for RED Star FC 93 — a slight edge to RED Star FC 93 on expected output. A combined 3.28 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Dijon and RED Star FC 93
Dijon		RED Star FC 93
12	Played	12
5-3-4	W-D-L	5-2-5
1.50	Pts / game	1.42
1.75	Goals for / game	1.17
1.58	Goals against / game	1.42
58%	Over 2.5	50%
83%	BTTS	58%
8%	Clean sheets	25%
8%	Failed to score	25%
3-0-3	Home record	1-1-3
2-3-1	Away record	4-1-2
W2	Streak	L4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dijon · RED Star FC 93

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	10.2
4.8	Shots on target	3.4
4.8	Corners	4.8
0.60	Cards	1.80
16.6	Fouls	15.8
57	Possession %	52
1.77	xG	1.18
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	10.2
5.0	Shots on target	3.8
3.6	Corners	4.2
1.60	Cards	1.80
15.2	Fouls	15.8
43	Possession %	48
1.27	xG	1.26
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dijon	Metric	RED Star FC 93
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
2.20	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.09
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
15.25 (better)	Total shots	15.20
	Touches in opp. box
4.75 (better)	Corners	4.20
59.3 (better)	Possession %	54.0
549 (better)	Passes	474
	Tackles
15.00 (better)	Fouls	21.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.40
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dijon wins: 1
Draws: 0
RED Star FC 93 wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Dijon v RED Star FC 931–02026-11-06

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5