Celta Vigo v Union St. Gilloise

11th1–21st

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Celta Vigo		Union St. Gilloise
13	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	3
11	Corners	1
17	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
600	Passes	417
58%	Possession %	42%
1.08	xG	2.19

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Union St. Gilloise 47%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.42

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.27Betano · fair 2.04 · qualifies at 2.12+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.27 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.04. The offered 2.27 implies only 44%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Celta Vigo 0.95, Union St. Gilloise 1.42.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Celta Vigo	24.4%	4.09	2.44 Dafabet	41.0%	-16.6
Match result	Draw	28.1%	3.55	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+1.8
Match result	Union St. Gilloise	47.4%	2.11	3.35 Betano	29.9%	+17.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.1%	1.45	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.9%	3.24	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	+8.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.3%	2.37	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-7.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.7%	1.73	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+6.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.5%	4.65	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-7.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.5%	1.27	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.1%	2.12	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-8.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.9%	1.89	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+7.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Union St. Gilloise favoured against Celta Vigo

Our model makes Celta Vigo 24% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Union St. Gilloise at 47%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Celta Vigo against 1.42 for Union St. Gilloise — a clear edge to Union St. Gilloise on expected output. A combined 2.37 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 10%; 0-2 9%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise
Celta Vigo		Union St. Gilloise
12	Played	11
2-7-3	W-D-L	9-2-0
1.08	Pts / game	2.64
0.83	Goals for / game	2.73
0.83	Goals against / game	0.64
33%	Over 2.5	64%
33%	BTTS	45%
50%	Clean sheets	55%
58%	Failed to score	9%
2-3-2	Home record	4-2-0
0-4-1	Away record	5-0-0
D1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Celta Vigo · Union St. Gilloise

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.9	Shots	19.4
3.8	Shots on target	7.0
4.0	Corners	6.4
1.44	Cards	1.54
12.8	Fouls	10.5
48	Possession %	54
1.37	xG	1.95
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	8.9
4.3	Shots on target	2.3
3.4	Corners	3.5
2.11	Cards	2.54
13.2	Fouls	13.5
52	Possession %	46
1.11	xG	0.81
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Celta Vigo	Metric	Union St. Gilloise
1.00	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
0.80	Goals conceded	0.80
0.93	Expected goals (xG)	1.95 (better)
	Big chances
2.60	Shots on target	8.50 (better)
11.20	Total shots	21.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.60	Corners	7.50 (better)
45.6	Possession %	60.8 (better)
487	Passes	504 (better)
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	10.25 (better)
1.75	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Celta Vigo wins: 0
Draws: 0
Union St. Gilloise wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Celta Vigo v Union St. Gilloise1–22026-11-05

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12	Benfica won 4 of the last 4
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12	Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10	Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10	Juventus won 3 of the last 4
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10	Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7	Sunderland won 2 of the last 4
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7	NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7	Lyon won 2 of the last 4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6	AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6	OFI won 2 of the last 4
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6	Rennes won 1 of the last 4
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6	Torreense won 2 of the last 4
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5	Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4
22	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4	1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4
23	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4	Celje won 1 of the last 4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 4
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Plzen won 1 of the last 4
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Marseille won 1 of the last 4
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Celtic won 1 of the last 4
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4