Montpellier v 
Metz
Match statistics
| Montpellier | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 488 | Passes | 279 |
| 64% | Possession % | 36% |
| 1.99 | xG | 0.84 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 47%
- Model pick
- Montpellier 54%
- Likely score
- 1-0 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.61 – 0.87
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Both teams to score — No
Why this price?
Back both teams to score — no at 2.40 with Betano — at least one side fails to score.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.20. The offered 2.40 implies only 42%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.66 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Montpellier 1.61, Metz 0.87.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Montpellier
Why this price?
Back Montpellier to win at 2.22 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.09. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 6.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.27 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Montpellier 1.61, Metz 0.87.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Montpellier | 54.2% | 1.85 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | +4.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | -0.2 |
| Match result | Metz | 19.7% | 5.08 | 4.10 Dafabet | 24.4% | -4.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | -10.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.49 | 4.50 Bet365 | 22.2% | +6.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | -13.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 2.27 Betano | 44.1% | +11.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.7% | 4.22 | 2.77 Betano | 36.1% | -12.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | +10.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -14.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.0% | 1.89 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +11.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Montpellier favoured against Metz
Our model makes Montpellier 54% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Metz at 20%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Montpellier against 0.87 for Metz — a substantial edge to Montpellier on expected output. A combined 2.48 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 13%
- 1-1 12%
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-0 9%
This season
| Montpellier | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 7-3-2 | W-D-L | 4-5-3 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 1.42 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game | 1.58 |
| 42% | Over 2.5 | 58% |
| 42% | BTTS | 83% |
| 58% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 3-2-1 | Home record | 3-2-1 |
| 4-1-1 | Away record | 1-3-2 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Montpellier · Metz
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.2 | Shots | 13.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 15.6 |
| 61 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.46 | xG | 1.50 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 14.4 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.20 |
| 17.8 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 39 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.59 | xG | 1.92 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Montpellier | Metric | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 13.40 (better) | Total shots | 13.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.40 |
| 60.8 (better) | Possession % | 52.8 |
| 551 (better) | Passes | 470 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.20 (better) | Fouls | 14.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Montpellier wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Metz wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Montpellier v Metz2–32026-11-06
- Metz v Montpellier0–42026-01-11
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 28 | Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Nancy | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +8 | 25 | Nancy won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 24 | Montpellier won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | +9 | 21 | Reims won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 20 | PAU won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Dijon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 18 | Dijon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 17 | Metz won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RED Star FC 93 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 | RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Annecy | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Annecy won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 | Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 14 | Guingamp won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 13 | Boulogne won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Rodez | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 | Rodez won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | Nantes won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Clermont Foot | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 11 | Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 | Sochaux won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Grenoble | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 | Grenoble won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Laval | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Laval won 1 of the last 5 |