Necaxa v 
Club Tijuana
Match statistics
| Necaxa | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 370 | Passes | 493 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 1.32 | xG | 1.75 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Club Tijuana 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.26 – 1.63
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Club Tijuana
Why this price?
Back Club Tijuana to win at 3.00 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.68. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Necaxa 1.26, Club Tijuana 1.63.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Necaxa | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | -9.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.70 Betfair | 27.0% | -1.5 |
| Match result | Club Tijuana | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | +9.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.28 Betano | 78.1% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.1% | 4.75 | 5.00 BetVictor | 20.0% | +1.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | +1.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 3.10 BetVictor | 32.3% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | -2.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | -2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.55 BetVictor | 39.2% | +2.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Club Tijuana favoured against Necaxa
Our model makes Necaxa 29% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 26% and Club Tijuana at 45%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Necaxa against 1.63 for Club Tijuana — a clear edge to Club Tijuana on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 0-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Necaxa | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Played | 16 |
| 3-4-9 | W-D-L | 5-7-4 |
| 0.81 | Pts / game | 1.38 |
| 1.06 | Goals for / game | 1.56 |
| 1.75 | Goals against / game | 1.38 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 69% | BTTS | 63% |
| 6% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 3-1-5 | Home record | 5-1-2 |
| 0-3-4 | Away record | 0-6-2 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Necaxa · Club Tijuana
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.4 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 48 | Possession % | 39 |
| 2.02 | xG | 1.44 |
| 7 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 15.9 | Shots | 19.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 6.9 | Corners | 8.6 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.22 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 52 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.41 | xG | 1.44 |
| 7 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Necaxa | Metric | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 2.14 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Shots on target | 4.60 |
| 15.60 (better) | Total shots | 13.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.60 | Corners | 5.60 |
| 46.0 (better) | Possession % | 39.0 |
| 392 (better) | Passes | 315 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.40 | Fouls | 10.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Necaxa wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Club Tijuana wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 0%
- Necaxa v Club Tijuana1–02026-11-07
- Necaxa v Club Tijuana3–02026-03-21
- Club Tijuana v Necaxa3–02025-09-01
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 | Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +15 | 30 | Club America won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +11 | 30 | Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +14 | 27 | Toluca won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 27 | Atlas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Leon won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 22 | CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 21 | Monterrey won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 19 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 15 | Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 14 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 | Necaxa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -21 | 11 | FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5 |