Peterborough v 
Reading
Match statistics
| Peterborough | Reading | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 373 | Passes | 507 |
| 40% | Possession % | 60% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 72%
- Over 3.5
- 52%
- Both score
- 70%
- Model pick
- Reading 55%
- Likely score
- 1-2 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 2.26
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Reading
Why this price?
Back Reading to win at 2.43 with Dafabet.
Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 40%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.18. The offered 2.43 implies only 41%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Peterborough 1.49, Reading 2.26.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Peterborough | 24.6% | 4.06 | 2.90 Bet365 | 34.5% | -9.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | -15.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +12.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -17.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | +4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 30.2% | 3.31 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -9.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 20.8% | 4.80 | 3.65 Dafabet | 27.4% | -6.6 |
| Match result | Reading | 54.6% | 1.83 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | +12.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | +6.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 10.8% | 9.29 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -9.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | +10.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Reading favoured against Peterborough
Our model makes Peterborough 25% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Reading at 55%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Peterborough against 2.26 for Reading — a substantial edge to Reading on expected output. A combined 3.75 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 9%
- 1-1 8%
- 1-3 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-2 6%
This season
| Peterborough | Reading | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 14 |
| 2-4-7 | W-D-L | 6-4-4 |
| 0.77 | Pts / game | 1.57 |
| 0.85 | Goals for / game | 1.79 |
| 1.77 | Goals against / game | 1.07 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 54% | BTTS | 50% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 1-2-3 | Home record | 5-1-1 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 1-3-3 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Peterborough · Reading
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.7 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.22 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 12.1 |
| 50 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.52 | xG | 1.84 |
| 7 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 14.6 | Shots | 13.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 1.78 |
| 12.9 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 50 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.63 | xG | 1.22 |
| 7 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Peterborough | Metric | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (better) | Goals scored | 0.60 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.53 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 16.20 (better) | Total shots | 12.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.80 (better) | Corners | 5.60 |
| 55.2 (better) | Possession % | 47.2 |
| 406 (better) | Passes | 356 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.20 (better) | Fouls | 12.80 |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.60 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Peterborough wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Reading wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Peterborough v Reading0–52026-11-07
- Peterborough v Reading1–12025-12-29
- Reading v Peterborough1–22025-12-09