Serbia v Germany

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Germany 68%
Likely score: 0-2 13%
Expected goals: 0.77 – 2.12

Advised bets

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Model pick: Total goals

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Germany favoured against Serbia

Our model makes Serbia 12% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Germany at 68%. The goal projection is 0.77 for Serbia against 2.12 for Germany — a commanding edge to Germany on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Germany is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 13%; 0-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 1-1 10%; 0-3 9%

This season

Season records for Serbia and Germany
Serbia		Germany
4	Played	4
0-0-4	W-D-L	1-2-1
0.00	Pts / game	1.25
0.75	Goals for / game	0.75
2.00	Goals against / game	0.50
75%	Over 2.5	0%
75%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	50%
0-0-2	Home record	1-0-1
0-0-2	Away record	0-2-0
L4	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Serbia · Germany

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.8	Shots	19.8
3.8	Shots on target	4.8
2.5	Corners	6.0
2.25	Cards	1.25
10.5	Fouls	13.8
33	Possession %	67
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
26.3	Shots	9.0
8.0	Shots on target	3.5
7.0	Corners	4.3
0.75	Cards	3.00
10.3	Fouls	10.3
67	Possession %	34
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Serbia	Metric	Germany
0.80	Goals scored	0.80
2.60	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
7.60	Total shots	20.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.20	Corners	8.00 (better)
33.2	Possession %	68.2 (better)
313	Passes	655 (better)
	Tackles
9.40 (better)	Fouls	14.60
2.20	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Serbia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Germany wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Germany v Serbia2–02026-10-01