Germany v Serbia
- Over 1.5
- 64%
- Over 2.5
- 36%
- Over 3.5
- 17%
- Both score
- 44%
- Model pick
- Serbia 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 0.97 – 1.19
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Selection
- Serbia
- Advised price
- 13.50 (Betano)
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- Fair price
- 2.49 · qualifies at 2.59+
Model probability 40% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 442.8%. Projection: 0.97–1.19. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Selection
- Draw
- Advised price
- 7.50 (Betfair)
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- Fair price
- 3.24 · qualifies at 3.37+
Model probability 31% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 131.4%. Projection: 0.97–1.19. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Selection
- Draw
- Advised price
- 6.62 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- Fair price
- 3.24 · qualifies at 3.37+
Model probability 31% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 104.3%. Projection: 0.97–1.19. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★Confidence 2 of 5- Selection
- Both teams to score — No
- Advised price
- 1.90 (Betfair)
- Stake
- 1.85 units
- Fair price
- 1.78 · qualifies at 1.85+
Model probability 36% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 6.7%. Projection: 0.97–1.19. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★Confidence 2 of 5- Selection
- Both teams to score — No
- Advised price
- 1.90 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 1.85 units
- Fair price
- 1.78 · qualifies at 1.85+
Model probability 36% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 6.7%. Projection: 0.97–1.19. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Germany | 28.9% | 3.46 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Draw | 30.9% | 3.24 | 7.50 Betfair | 13.3% | +17.5 |
| Match result | Serbia | 40.2% | 2.49 | 13.50 Betano | 7.4% | +32.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -32.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +28.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 17.2% | 5.83 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.90 Betfair | 52.6% | +3.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
4 premium selections on this fixture- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Serbia favoured against Germany
Our model makes Germany 29% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 31% and Serbia at 40%. The goal projection is 0.97 for Germany against 1.19 for Serbia — a slight edge to Serbia on expected output. A combined 2.15 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 13%
- 0-0 12%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-2 8%
This season
| Germany | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 2 |
| 0-1-1 | W-D-L | 0-0-2 |
| 0.50 | Pts / game | 0.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 0% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 50% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-1 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 0-1-0 | Away record | 0-0-0 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Germany · Serbia
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.0 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 9.0 |
| 61 | Possession % | 36 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 25.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 8.5 |
| 7.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 8.5 |
| 39 | Possession % | 64 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Form comparison
| Germany | Metric | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.60 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.60 | Shots on target | 5.25 (better) |
| 14.80 (better) | Total shots | 11.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 63.6 (better) | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 623 (better) | Passes | 370 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 | Fouls | 8.50 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 | Yellow cards | 1.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.