Bulgaria v Iceland

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Iceland 55%
Likely score: 0-1 13%
Expected goals: 0.86 – 1.62

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Iceland favoured against Bulgaria

Our model makes Bulgaria 19% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Iceland at 55%. The goal projection is 0.86 for Bulgaria against 1.62 for Iceland — a substantial edge to Iceland on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 13%; 1-1 12%; 0-2 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Bulgaria and Iceland
Bulgaria		Iceland
4	Played	4
1-1-2	W-D-L	2-2-0
1.00	Pts / game	2.00
0.75	Goals for / game	1.75
1.25	Goals against / game	0.25
50%	Over 2.5	50%
25%	BTTS	25%
50%	Clean sheets	75%
50%	Failed to score	25%
0-1-1	Home record	1-1-0
1-0-1	Away record	1-1-0
W1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bulgaria · Iceland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.5	Shots	13.5
4.3	Shots on target	4.8
4.0	Corners	6.3
3.00	Cards	2.00
12.0	Fouls	11.5
48	Possession %	54
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	9.0
5.5	Shots on target	3.0
6.0	Corners	2.3
1.75	Cards	2.25
17.3	Fouls	12.0
52	Possession %	46
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bulgaria	Metric	Iceland
1.00	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	2.23 (better)
	Big chances
4.25 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
12.50 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.40 (better)
47.8	Possession %	50.4 (better)
409	Passes	469 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	13.40
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bulgaria wins: 0
Draws: 0
Iceland wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Iceland v Bulgaria3–02026-10-03