Romania v Poland

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Poland 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 0.96 – 1.81

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Model pick: Match result

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Poland favoured against Romania

Our model makes Romania 19% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Poland at 57%. The goal projection is 0.96 for Romania against 1.81 for Poland — a substantial edge to Poland on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Romania and Poland
Romania		Poland
4	Played	4
0-0-4	W-D-L	1-1-2
0.00	Pts / game	1.00
0.75	Goals for / game	1.75
3.25	Goals against / game	1.00
75%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
50%	Failed to score	50%
0-0-2	Home record	1-1-0
0-0-2	Away record	0-0-2
L4	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Romania · Poland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	18.5
3.0	Shots on target	6.0
2.5	Corners	5.5
3.25	Cards	2.75
14.5	Fouls	10.8
45	Possession %	57
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5	Shots	10.0
5.5	Shots on target	2.8
4.3	Corners	2.5
1.50	Cards	3.25
8.8	Fouls	12.0
55	Possession %	43
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Romania	Metric	Poland
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
0.65	Expected goals (xG)	1.74 (better)
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
13.60	Total shots	17.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.40 (better)
44.6	Possession %	55.2 (better)
436	Passes	504 (better)
	Tackles
15.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	2.60
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Romania wins: 0
Draws: 0
Poland wins: 1
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Poland v Romania6–02026-10-02