Türkiye v Belgium

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Model pick: Both teams to score

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Members only

Model pick: Match result

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

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Our probabilities against the market

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Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Belgium favoured against Türkiye

Our model makes Türkiye 17% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Belgium at 62%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Türkiye against 2.02 for Belgium — a commanding edge to Belgium on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Belgium is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 10%; 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 10%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Türkiye and Belgium
Türkiye		Belgium
4	Played	4
0-0-4	W-D-L	2-0-2
0.00	Pts / game	1.50
0.50	Goals for / game	1.50
2.75	Goals against / game	1.25
75%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
50%	Failed to score	25%
0-0-2	Home record	1-0-1
0-0-2	Away record	1-0-1
L4	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Türkiye · Belgium

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	13.3
4.8	Shots on target	5.5
6.3	Corners	3.5
2.75	Cards	3.25
11.8	Fouls	10.8
48	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	21.3
7.0	Shots on target	7.3
2.5	Corners	6.0
2.25	Cards	1.50
14.8	Fouls	9.3
52	Possession %	58
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Türkiye	Metric	Belgium
1.00	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.99 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.20
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
14.60 (better)	Total shots	11.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.40 (better)	Corners	3.00
47.6 (better)	Possession %	39.8
473 (better)	Passes	405
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	12.20
1.20	Offsides	0.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20 (better)	Yellow cards	3.20
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Türkiye wins: 0
Draws: 0
Belgium wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Belgium v Türkiye3–02026-10-02