Belgium v Türkiye

3–0

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Belgium		Türkiye
17	Shots	23
10	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	5
12	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
521	Passes	443
54%	Possession %	46%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 60%
Over 2.5: 32%
Over 3.5: 14%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: Belgium 35%
Likely score: 0-0 14%
Expected goals: 1.02 – 0.97

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Belgium	35.0%	2.85	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-26.7
Match result	Draw	32.5%	3.08	4.90 Betano	20.4%	+12.1
Match result	Türkiye	32.5%	3.08	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+15.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	60.1%	1.66	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-26.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	39.9%	2.51	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+24.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	32.3%	3.10	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-33.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	67.7%	1.48	2.75 Betano	36.4%	+31.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	14.2%	7.03	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-31.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	85.8%	1.17	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+28.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	40.7%	2.46	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-23.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	59.3%	1.69	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+20.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Belgium v Türkiye: too close to call

Our model makes Belgium 35% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 32% and Türkiye at 32%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Belgium against 0.97 for Türkiye — almost nothing to Belgium on expected output. A combined 2.00 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 32% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 14%; 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Belgium and Türkiye
Belgium		Türkiye
4	Played	4
2-0-2	W-D-L	0-0-4
1.50	Pts / game	0.00
1.50	Goals for / game	0.50
1.25	Goals against / game	2.75
50%	Over 2.5	75%
25%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
25%	Failed to score	50%
1-0-1	Home record	0-0-2
1-0-1	Away record	0-0-2
L1	Streak	L4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Belgium · Türkiye

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	16.0
5.5	Shots on target	4.8
3.5	Corners	6.3
3.25	Cards	2.75
10.8	Fouls	11.8
42	Possession %	48
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
21.3	Shots	14.5
7.3	Shots on target	7.0
6.0	Corners	2.5
1.50	Cards	2.25
9.3	Fouls	14.8
58	Possession %	52
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Belgium	Metric	Türkiye
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.96	Expected goals (xG)	2.19 (better)
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	5.40
18.60	Total shots	19.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	7.80 (better)
45.2	Possession %	57.2 (better)
483	Passes	508 (better)
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	11.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.40	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Belgium wins: 1
Draws: 0
Türkiye wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Belgium v Türkiye3–02026-10-02