Boulogne v Annecy

12th3–09th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Boulogne		Annecy
14	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
2	Corners	6
11	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
5	Offsides	0
454	Passes	379
54%	Possession %	46%
1.32	xG	0.54

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Annecy 44%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.32

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Annecy

3.05Betano · fair 2.76 · qualifies at 2.84+ · 1.28u

Why this price?

Back Annecy to win at 3.05 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.76. The offered 3.05 implies only 33%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.28 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Boulogne 0.98, Annecy 1.32.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	29.1%	3.44	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	-3.2
Match result	Annecy	43.9%	2.28	3.20 Betano	31.3%	+12.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.7%	1.48	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.4%	3.09	2.82 Betano	35.5%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.5%	2.47	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.5%	1.68	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.1%	4.96	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.9%	1.25	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.5%	2.15	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.5%	1.87	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-0.6
Match result	Boulogne	27.0%	3.70	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-11.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Annecy favoured against Boulogne

Our model makes Boulogne 27% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 29% and Annecy at 44%. The goal projection is 0.98 for Boulogne against 1.32 for Annecy — a clear edge to Annecy on expected output. A combined 2.30 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 9%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Boulogne and Annecy
Boulogne		Annecy
12	Played	12
2-7-3	W-D-L	5-1-6
1.08	Pts / game	1.33
0.83	Goals for / game	1.17
0.67	Goals against / game	1.50
17%	Over 2.5	67%
42%	BTTS	58%
42%	Clean sheets	25%
42%	Failed to score	17%
1-4-1	Home record	1-1-3
1-3-2	Away record	4-0-3
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Boulogne · Annecy

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	13.0
4.2	Shots on target	5.8
4.4	Corners	6.0
2.00	Cards	1.80
18.0	Fouls	12.8
45	Possession %	40
1.16	xG	1.53
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.8	Shots	11.8
2.6	Shots on target	4.6
5.4	Corners	5.6
2.60	Cards	2.00
16.6	Fouls	11.0
55	Possession %	60
0.71	xG	1.33
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Boulogne	Metric	Annecy
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.40	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
11.75 (better)	Total shots	11.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	6.00 (better)
46.3 (better)	Possession %	40.8
380 (better)	Passes	371
	Tackles
19.75	Fouls	12.00 (better)
3.00	Offsides	2.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Boulogne wins: 1
Draws: 1
Annecy wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Boulogne v Annecy3–02026-11-06
Boulogne v Annecy1–22026-05-02
Annecy v Boulogne1–12025-10-31

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5