Armenia v Cyprus

17:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Cyprus 45%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.34

Advised bets

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cyprus favoured against Armenia

Our model makes Armenia 26% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Cyprus at 45%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Armenia against 1.34 for Cyprus — a clear edge to Cyprus on expected output. A combined 2.29 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-2 9%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for Armenia and Cyprus
Armenia		Cyprus
4	Played	4
1-1-2	W-D-L	2-1-1
1.00	Pts / game	1.75
1.00	Goals for / game	1.25
1.25	Goals against / game	0.75
25%	Over 2.5	50%
25%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	50%
50%	Failed to score	25%
1-0-1	Home record	2-0-0
0-1-1	Away record	0-1-1
D1	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Armenia · Cyprus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.5	Shots	14.0
3.8	Shots on target	5.0
6.3	Corners	5.0
1.75	Cards	2.50
10.3	Fouls	8.8
53	Possession %	50
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.3	Shots	14.0
3.5	Shots on target	2.5
2.8	Corners	6.5
1.25	Cards	2.00
11.5	Fouls	10.3
47	Possession %	51
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Armenia	Metric	Cyprus
1.00	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.79	Expected goals (xG)	1.02 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
12.25	Total shots	14.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	6.00
52.8 (better)	Possession %	52.0
493 (better)	Passes	436
	Tackles
9.40	Fouls	8.40 (better)
0.67 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Armenia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Cyprus wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Cyprus v Armenia2–02026-10-02