Leganes v 
Albacete
Match statistics
| Leganes | Albacete | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 441 | Passes | 260 |
| 63% | Possession % | 37% |
| 2.42 | xG | 2.17 |
- Over 1.5
- 68%
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Over 3.5
- 21%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- Albacete 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.16 – 1.17
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Albacete
Why this price?
Back Albacete to win at 3.65 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.30. The offered 3.65 implies only 27%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.01 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Leganes 1.16, Albacete 1.17.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leganes | 34.9% | 2.86 | 2.18 Dafabet | 45.9% | -10.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 29.5% | 3.39 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +0.9 |
| Match result | Albacete | 35.6% | 2.81 | 3.80 Bet365 | 26.3% | +9.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 68.3% | 1.47 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -8.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 3.55 Betano | 28.2% | +3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | -9.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | +7.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | -8.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.36 Betano | 73.5% | +5.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -7.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 52.0% | 1.92 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | +3.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Leganes v Albacete: too close to call
Our model makes Leganes 35% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 29% and Albacete at 36%. The goal projection is 1.16 for Leganes against 1.17 for Albacete — almost nothing to Albacete on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 0-0 10%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Leganes | Albacete | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 3-3-7 | W-D-L | 3-1-9 |
| 0.92 | Pts / game | 0.77 |
| 0.85 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.77 | Goals against / game | 1.85 |
| 38% | Over 2.5 | 62% |
| 38% | BTTS | 62% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 2-1-3 | Home record | 2-0-4 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 1-1-5 |
| L2 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leganes · Albacete
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.4 | Shots | 13.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 4.41 | Cards | 3.43 |
| 17.1 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 49 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.71 | xG | 0.97 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 18.1 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.89 | Cards | 2.71 |
| 12.9 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.88 | xG | 1.76 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Leganes | Metric | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| 0.20 | Goals scored | 0.80 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.40 |
| 1.32 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.28 |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.00 | Shots on target | 3.80 (better) |
| 11.20 | Total shots | 15.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.20 | Corners | 6.20 (better) |
| 46.0 (better) | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 376 (better) | Passes | 371 |
| Tackles | ||
| 18.80 | Fouls | 14.20 (better) |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 4.60 | Yellow cards | 3.40 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.33 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Leganes wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Albacete wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Leganes v Albacete1–32026-11-07
- Leganes v Albacete2–12026-04-11
- Albacete v Leganes1–32026-01-04
- Leganes v Albacete1–22025-12-04
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Almeria won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Castellón won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 23 | Eibar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 | Granada CF won 5 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +8 | 22 | Mallorca won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 | Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Girona | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +10 | 21 | Girona won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 21 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 20 | Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19 | Cordoba won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 | Valladolid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 18 | Sabadell won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 15 | Tenerife won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 14 | Eldense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 | Leganes won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 10 | Cadiz won 1 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 | Albacete won 3 of the last 5 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 5 | AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5 |