Slovenia v Switzerland

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 42%

Model pick: Switzerland 56%
Likely score: 0-1 15%
Expected goals: 0.75 – 1.57

Advised bets

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Switzerland favoured against Slovenia

Our model makes Slovenia 17% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Switzerland at 56%. The goal projection is 0.75 for Slovenia against 1.57 for Switzerland — a substantial edge to Switzerland on expected output. A combined 2.32 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 15%; 1-1 12%; 0-2 12%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Slovenia and Switzerland
Slovenia		Switzerland
4	Played	4
2-1-1	W-D-L	4-0-0
1.75	Pts / game	3.00
1.25	Goals for / game	2.75
0.75	Goals against / game	0.25
50%	Over 2.5	100%
50%	BTTS	25%
50%	Clean sheets	75%
25%	Failed to score	0%
1-1-0	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	2-0-0
W1	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Slovenia · Switzerland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	19.8
3.0	Shots on target	8.3
4.5	Corners	5.8
3.25	Cards	0.25
13.5	Fouls	10.0
42	Possession %	65
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.8	Shots	4.3
4.5	Shots on target	0.8
3.0	Corners	2.0
1.50	Cards	3.00
11.3	Fouls	13.3
59	Possession %	35
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slovenia	Metric	Switzerland
1.20	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
0.83	Expected goals (xG)	1.41 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	7.60 (better)
10.60	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	5.00 (better)
39.8	Possession %	60.2 (better)
388	Passes	570 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	11.60 (better)
1.50 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
3.25	Yellow cards	0.60 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Slovenia wins: 0
Draws: 1
Switzerland wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Switzerland v Slovenia2–12026-10-03
Slovenia v Switzerland0–02025-10-13
Switzerland v Slovenia3–02025-09-08