Cesena v Catanzaro

13th1–020th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cesena		Catanzaro
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	9
17	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
479	Passes	532
47%	Possession %	53%
1.15	xG	0.66

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Catanzaro 42%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.69

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Catanzaro

3.25Betano · fair 2.95 · qualifies at 3.04+ · 1.14u

Why this price?

Back Catanzaro to win at 3.25 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.95. The offered 3.25 implies only 31%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cesena 1.50, Catanzaro 1.69.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cesena	33.8%	2.96	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-12.7
Match result	Draw	24.4%	4.10	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-3.8
Match result	Catanzaro	41.8%	2.39	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	+14.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.2%	1.20	1.25 Betano	80.0%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.8%	5.97	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-7.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.8%	1.62	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+6.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.2%	2.62	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.5%	2.53	2.90 Betano	34.5%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.5%	1.65	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.9%	1.57	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.1%	2.77	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-7.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Catanzaro favoured against Cesena

Our model makes Cesena 34% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 24% and Catanzaro at 42%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Cesena against 1.69 for Catanzaro — a slight edge to Catanzaro on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Cesena and Catanzaro
Cesena		Catanzaro
11	Played	10
3-6-2	W-D-L	1-3-6
1.36	Pts / game	0.60
1.09	Goals for / game	0.90
1.27	Goals against / game	2.00
36%	Over 2.5	50%
73%	BTTS	70%
9%	Clean sheets	10%
18%	Failed to score	20%
2-4-0	Home record	1-1-2
1-2-2	Away record	0-2-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cesena · Catanzaro

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	14.0
3.7	Shots on target	4.5
4.5	Corners	5.8
2.17	Cards	1.67
12.5	Fouls	10.7
45	Possession %	49
1.38	xG	1.18
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	16.8
4.8	Shots on target	5.3
5.5	Corners	6.3
1.67	Cards	1.83
10.0	Fouls	14.2
55	Possession %	51
1.28	xG	2.13
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cesena	Metric	Catanzaro
0.80	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.06	Expected goals (xG)	1.21 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	3.80 (better)
12.80 (better)	Total shots	11.60
	Touches in opp. box
4.40 (better)	Corners	4.00
41.6	Possession %	48.4 (better)
367	Passes	415 (better)
	Tackles
13.80	Fouls	10.40 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cesena wins: 2
Draws: 0
Catanzaro wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Cesena v Catanzaro1–02026-11-07
Cesena v Catanzaro3–12026-03-21
Catanzaro v Cesena2–02025-12-27

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5