Famalicao v Arouca

10th1–05th

20:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Famalicao		Arouca
14	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
9	Corners	2
8	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
521	Passes	480
53%	Possession %	47%
0.82	xG	0.40

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Famalicao 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.21

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Arouca

3.90Dafabet · fair 3.63 · qualifies at 3.74+ · 0.65u

Why this price?

Back Arouca to win at 3.90 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 28%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.63. The offered 3.90 implies only 26%, so the price is 7.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.65 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Famalicao 1.42, Arouca 1.21.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Famalicao	41.3%	2.42	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+2.8
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.67	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-1.3
Match result	Arouca	31.5%	3.18	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+2.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.5%	1.34	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.5%	3.93	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.0%	2.04	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.0%	1.96	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.1%	3.68	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.9%	1.37	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.85	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	2.00 BetVictor	50.0%	-3.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Famalicao favoured against Arouca

Our model makes Famalicao 41% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Arouca at 31%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Famalicao against 1.21 for Arouca — a slight edge to Famalicao on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Famalicao and Arouca
Famalicao		Arouca
11	Played	11
3-4-4	W-D-L	6-2-3
1.18	Pts / game	1.82
1.36	Goals for / game	1.18
1.27	Goals against / game	0.73
55%	Over 2.5	36%
45%	BTTS	27%
36%	Clean sheets	55%
27%	Failed to score	27%
1-2-2	Home record	4-0-1
2-2-2	Away record	2-2-2
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Famalicao · Arouca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	10.8
3.3	Shots on target	3.8
5.0	Corners	4.5
2.25	Cards	3.00
10.8	Fouls	11.3
50	Possession %	54
0.78	xG	0.99
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	10.0
3.5	Shots on target	2.3
4.0	Corners	5.0
3.25	Cards	2.25
21.8	Fouls	8.5
50	Possession %	46
1.29	xG	0.77
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Famalicao	Metric	Arouca
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.15	Expected goals (xG)	1.41 (better)
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
12.33 (better)	Total shots	12.25
	Touches in opp. box
4.33 (better)	Corners	3.75
50.7	Possession %	54.5 (better)
448	Passes	493 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	13.75
1.50	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.75
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Famalicao wins: 2
Draws: 1
Arouca wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Famalicao v Arouca1–02026-11-06
Famalicao v Arouca1–02026-03-06
Arouca v Famalicao1–12025-10-05

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5