Manchester United v 
Aston Villa
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Aston Villa 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.43 – 1.73
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Match result
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Aston Villa favoured against Manchester United
Our model makes Manchester United 31% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Aston Villa at 44%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Manchester United against 1.73 for Aston Villa — a clear edge to Aston Villa on expected output. A combined 3.16 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
This season
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 1-4-4 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 0.78 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 1.11 | Goals for / game | 1.11 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game | 1.44 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 56% |
| 56% | BTTS | 56% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1-1-2 | Home record | 1-2-2 |
| 0-3-2 | Away record | 2-1-1 |
| L2 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manchester United · Aston Villa
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.6 | Shots | 14.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 6.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 3.05 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 11.2 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 49 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.15 | xG | 1.43 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.0 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 3.80 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 15.2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.94 | xG | 1.60 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Manchester United | Metric | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 0.40 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 2.40 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.97 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 | Shots on target | 6.20 (better) |
| 12.80 | Total shots | 16.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.80 | Corners | 5.60 (better) |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 47.4 (better) |
| 480 (better) | Passes | 430 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 1.60 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.80 | Yellow cards | 1.80 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Manchester United wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Aston Villa wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Manchester United v Aston Villa3–12026-03-15
- Aston Villa v Manchester United2–12025-12-21
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 | Brentford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 | Bournemouth won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | Sunderland won 0 of the last 5 |