Liechtenstein v Azerbaijan

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 56%
Over 2.5: 28%
Over 3.5: 12%
Both score: 33%

Model pick: Azerbaijan 50%
Likely score: 0-1 19%
Expected goals: 0.62 – 1.23

Advised bets

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Model pick: Total goals

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Azerbaijan favoured against Liechtenstein

Our model makes Liechtenstein 18% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 31% and Azerbaijan at 50%. The goal projection is 0.62 for Liechtenstein against 1.23 for Azerbaijan — a substantial edge to Azerbaijan on expected output. A combined 1.85 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 28% and both teams to score at 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 19%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 19%; 0-0 16%; 1-1 13%; 0-2 12%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan
Liechtenstein		Azerbaijan
2	Played	3
0-1-1	W-D-L	1-2-0
0.50	Pts / game	1.67
0.00	Goals for / game	0.67
1.00	Goals against / game	0.33
0%	Over 2.5	0%
0%	BTTS	33%
50%	Clean sheets	67%
100%	Failed to score	33%
0-0-1	Home record	1-1-0
0-1-0	Away record	0-1-0
D1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Liechtenstein · Azerbaijan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
4.0	Shots	15.7
0.0	Shots on target	5.3
0.0	Corners	3.3
2.00	Cards	2.67
15.5	Fouls	12.3
27	Possession %	54
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.5	Shots	8.7
6.0	Shots on target	2.0
7.0	Corners	1.7
1.50	Cards	2.67
10.5	Fouls	13.3
74	Possession %	46
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Liechtenstein	Metric	Azerbaijan
0.00	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
0.29	Expected goals (xG)	1.73 (better)
	Big chances
0.50	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
3.33	Total shots	15.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
0.50	Corners	3.50 (better)
35.0	Possession %	52.3 (better)
259	Passes	471 (better)
	Tackles
14.75	Fouls	13.50 (better)
0.50 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
2.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Liechtenstein wins: 0
Draws: 1
Azerbaijan wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Azerbaijan v Liechtenstein0–02026-10-01