Farul Constanta v 
Rapid
Match statistics
| Farul Constanta | Rapid | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 425 | Passes | 493 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Farul Constanta 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.48 – 1.40
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Farul Constanta
Why this price?
Back Farul Constanta to win at 3.55 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.17. The offered 3.55 implies only 28%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.16 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Farul Constanta 1.48, Rapid 1.40.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Farul Constanta | 38.8% | 2.58 | 3.55 Betano | 28.2% | +10.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | -3.4 |
| Match result | Rapid | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.23 Dafabet | 44.8% | -9.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | +2.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.2% | 4.71 | 3.70 Betano | 27.0% | -5.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | +4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 1.91 Betano | 52.4% | -7.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.35 Betano | 74.1% | -6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +3.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | -6.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Farul Constanta v Rapid: too close to call
Our model makes Farul Constanta 39% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 26% and Rapid at 35%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Farul Constanta against 1.40 for Rapid — almost nothing to Farul Constanta on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Farul Constanta | Rapid | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-6-3 | W-D-L | 9-4-2 |
| 1.60 | Pts / game | 2.07 |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.47 | Goals against / game | 0.93 |
| 53% | Over 2.5 | 33% |
| 67% | BTTS | 53% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 5-2-0 | Home record | 6-1-1 |
| 1-4-3 | Away record | 3-3-1 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Farul Constanta · Rapid
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.2 | Shots | 13.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 1.25 | Cards | 2.40 |
| 7.5 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.08 | xG | 1.22 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 19.5 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.67 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 56 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.70 | xG | 1.65 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Farul Constanta | Metric | Rapid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.32 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 3.50 |
| 11.00 (better) | Total shots | 8.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.50 (better) | Corners | 1.75 |
| 48.0 (better) | Possession % | 47.8 |
| 466 (better) | Passes | 309 |
| Tackles | ||
| 6.75 (better) | Fouls | 8.25 |
| 0.25 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Farul Constanta wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Rapid wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Farul Constanta v Rapid1–12026-11-07
- Farul Constanta v Rapid3–12026-02-15
- Rapid v Farul Constanta3–12025-10-04
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 33 | Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 31 | Rapid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 24 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 22 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 18 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Botosani | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |