Exeter City v 
Cheltenham
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- Exeter City 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.56 – 1.24
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Exeter City favoured against Cheltenham
Our model makes Exeter City 44% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 26% and Cheltenham at 30%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Exeter City against 1.24 for Cheltenham — a clear edge to Exeter City on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 7%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Exeter City | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-4-5 | W-D-L | 6-3-5 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 0.79 | Goals for / game | 1.64 |
| 0.64 | Goals against / game | 1.79 |
| 21% | Over 2.5 | 71% |
| 29% | BTTS | 79% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 4-3-0 | Home record | 5-1-1 |
| 1-1-5 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Exeter City · Cheltenham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.4 | Shots | 7.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 2.3 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.86 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 50 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.12 | xG | 1.21 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.4 | Shots | 17.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.71 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 50 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.19 | xG | 1.56 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Exeter City | Metric | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.43 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.80 | Shots on target | 3.40 (better) |
| 11.20 (better) | Total shots | 10.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.60 | Corners | 4.60 (better) |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 50.4 (better) |
| 359 | Passes | 417 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.00 (better) | Fouls | 11.40 |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 4.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Exeter City wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Cheltenham wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Cheltenham v Exeter City2–02025-08-13
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |