Montenegro v Latvia

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Montenegro 47%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 0.94

Advised bets

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Model pick: Total goals

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Montenegro favoured against Latvia

Our model makes Montenegro 47% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Latvia at 25%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Montenegro against 0.94 for Latvia — a clear edge to Montenegro on expected output. A combined 2.34 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 10%; 2-0 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Montenegro and Latvia
Montenegro		Latvia
4	Played	4
3-1-0	W-D-L	0-1-3
2.50	Pts / game	0.25
1.75	Goals for / game	0.50
1.00	Goals against / game	1.50
75%	Over 2.5	50%
75%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	25%
25%	Failed to score	50%
1-1-0	Home record	0-1-1
2-0-0	Away record	0-0-2
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Montenegro · Latvia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	9.8
4.8	Shots on target	1.0
4.5	Corners	3.5
1.50	Cards	1.50
11.3	Fouls	10.8
56	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	16.3
3.0	Shots on target	5.5
2.5	Corners	7.5
2.00	Cards	2.00
9.5	Fouls	9.8
44	Possession %	59
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Montenegro	Metric	Latvia
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.89 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.64
	Big chances
4.75 (better)	Shots on target	1.00
13.25 (better)	Total shots	9.75
	Touches in opp. box
4.50 (better)	Corners	3.50
55.8 (better)	Possession %	41.5
510 (better)	Passes	391
	Tackles
11.25	Fouls	10.75 (better)
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Montenegro wins: 1
Draws: 0
Latvia wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Latvia v Montenegro1–22026-10-02