Luton v 
Cambridge United
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Luton 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.68 – 1.33
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Luton favoured against Cambridge United
Our model makes Luton 45% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cambridge United at 30%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Luton against 1.33 for Cambridge United — a clear edge to Luton on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Luton | Cambridge United | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 7-3-4 | W-D-L | 5-6-3 |
| 1.71 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.93 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 79% | BTTS | 86% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 4-2-1 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 3-1-3 | Away record | 2-4-1 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Luton · Cambridge United
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.9 | Shots | 17.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 10.7 |
| 1.14 | Cards | 1.86 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 49 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.84 | xG | 1.69 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.7 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 2.43 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 51 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.29 | xG | 1.61 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Luton | Metric | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.26 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.80 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 14.40 | Total shots | 17.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.60 | Corners | 9.40 (better) |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 48.8 (better) |
| 386 | Passes | 397 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.80 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →No previous meetings on record.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +16 | 29 | Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 | Stockport County won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +11 | 26 | Oxford United won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 | Luton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Plymouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 22 | Reading won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 22 | Bradford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 | Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 | Leicester won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 | Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 | Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 | Wycombe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 | Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 | Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 | Stevenage won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | Notts County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 | AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | Blackpool won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 | Doncaster won 1 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 | Wigan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 | Peterborough won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 | Barnsley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 | Bromley won 0 of the last 5 |