Norway v Wales

17:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Norway 51%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 0.98

Advised bets

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Model pick: Total goals

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Norway favoured against Wales

Our model makes Norway 51% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Wales at 22%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Norway against 0.98 for Wales — a substantial edge to Norway on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 12%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Norway and Wales
Norway		Wales
4	Played	4
1-0-3	W-D-L	1-0-3
0.75	Pts / game	0.75
1.50	Goals for / game	0.50
2.00	Goals against / game	1.25
100%	Over 2.5	25%
100%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	75%
1-0-1	Home record	1-0-1
0-0-2	Away record	0-0-2
L3	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Norway · Wales

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	8.3
5.0	Shots on target	2.8
4.5	Corners	3.0
1.50	Cards	2.25
9.0	Fouls	12.3
49	Possession %	47
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	17.0
6.0	Shots on target	4.3
4.5	Corners	4.5
3.75	Cards	1.00
10.3	Fouls	9.5
51	Possession %	53
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Norway	Metric	Wales
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.96 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.72
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
13.80 (better)	Total shots	10.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.80
49.0	Possession %	49.2 (better)
505 (better)	Passes	456
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	12.40
0.80 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Norway wins: 0
Draws: 0
Wales wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Wales v Norway2–12026-10-01