Wales v Norway

2–1

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wales		Norway
12	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	3
11	Fouls	7
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	0
522	Passes	517
55%	Possession %	45%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Norway 45%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.34

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wales	25.8%	3.88	7.30 Betano	13.7%	+12.1
Match result	Draw	29.3%	3.41	—	—	—
Match result	Norway	44.9%	2.23	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-20.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.4%	1.48	1.17 Betano	85.5%	-18.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.6%	3.07	5.75 BetVictor	17.4%	+15.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.0%	2.50	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-23.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.0%	1.67	2.57 Betano	38.9%	+21.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.8%	5.05	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-21.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.2%	1.25	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+19.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.0%	2.17	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-12.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.0%	1.85	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+8.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Norway favoured against Wales

Our model makes Wales 26% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Norway at 45%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Wales against 1.34 for Norway — a clear edge to Norway on expected output. A combined 2.29 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-2 9%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for Wales and Norway
Wales		Norway
4	Played	4
1-0-3	W-D-L	1-0-3
0.75	Pts / game	0.75
0.50	Goals for / game	1.50
1.25	Goals against / game	2.00
25%	Over 2.5	100%
25%	BTTS	100%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
75%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-1	Home record	1-0-1
0-0-2	Away record	0-0-2
L1	Streak	L3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wales · Norway

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.3	Shots	14.0
2.8	Shots on target	5.0
3.0	Corners	4.5
2.25	Cards	1.50
12.3	Fouls	9.0
47	Possession %	49
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	14.3
4.3	Shots on target	6.0
4.5	Corners	4.5
1.00	Cards	3.75
9.5	Fouls	10.3
53	Possession %	51
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wales	Metric	Norway
0.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.52 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.25
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
13.20	Total shots	13.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	5.20
53.4	Possession %	55.6 (better)
495	Passes	562 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	1.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wales wins: 1
Draws: 0
Norway wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Wales v Norway2–12026-10-01