Remo v Chapecoense-sc

19th20th

23:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Remo 52%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.84 – 1.18

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Remo favoured against Chapecoense-sc

Our model makes Remo 52% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Chapecoense-sc at 24%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Remo against 1.18 for Chapecoense-sc — a substantial edge to Remo on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Remo and Chapecoense-sc
Remo		Chapecoense-sc
34	Played	33
6-11-17	W-D-L	4-9-20
0.85	Pts / game	0.64
1.09	Goals for / game	1.00
1.68	Goals against / game	2.06
50%	Over 2.5	61%
62%	BTTS	64%
12%	Clean sheets	6%
32%	Failed to score	33%
4-7-6	Home record	3-5-8
2-4-11	Away record	1-4-12
L1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Remo · Chapecoense-sc

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.7	Shots	11.3
4.8	Shots on target	3.5
6.8	Corners	4.5
2.33	Cards	1.83
13.2	Fouls	13.8
47	Possession %	43
0.61	xG	0.78
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	17.5
5.2	Shots on target	7.7
5.5	Corners	5.3
1.33	Cards	0.83
14.8	Fouls	10.8
53	Possession %	57
2.03	xG	2.00
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Remo	Metric	Chapecoense-sc
0.80	Goals scored	0.80
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
0.59	Expected goals (xG)	0.76 (better)
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
13.00 (better)	Total shots	11.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	4.20
43.6 (better)	Possession %	41.6
400 (better)	Passes	388
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	13.20 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Remo wins: 1
Draws: 0
Chapecoense-sc wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Chapecoense-sc v Remo2–32026-05-17

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5